NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	3.5 [887]		MVP	Corey Brewer (DEN): +13.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	1.2 [721]		LVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): -11.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.01	-0.02	14	69%	0.14	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Al Harrington	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	0.00	0.07	9	80%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.00	-0.06	11	50%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	6	50%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	12	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Nene	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	64%	0.06	2	-0.04	10	80%	-0.00
Andre Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.01	-0.06	5	50%	0.03	5	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Ty Lawson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	10	41%	0.00	2	-0.03	7	71%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.00	0.06	6	73%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	58%	0.05	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	38%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	12	37%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	12	38%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	6	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.10	-0.00	0.15	22	65%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	6	14%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.4	27.4	15.4	23.9	2.0	26.0	124.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +37.4%

DEN +8.1%

MIL -3.0%

DEN +9.1%

MIL -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.0	14.7	15.6	104.0	95.0	102.8
season	14.5	14.6		107.5	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.8		103.4	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.1	12.3	14.3	18.5	14.0
MIL	15.5	16.5	15.1	11.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	53	54	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.06	17	-7	24	12.6	15.5	-2.92	16.7	12.4	4.30
Ty Lawson	67	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	-1	12	14.3	13.4	0.93	15.1	13.8	1.24
Danilo Gallinari	53	54	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.16	6	4	2	15.0	12.8	2.25	15.4	13.8	1.64
Al Harrington	45	42	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.15	16	-6	22	13.2	14.6	-1.43	14.6	14.8	-0.16
Andre Miller	51	49	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	1	8	13.3	14.7	-1.41	14.4	15.0	-0.59
Corey Brewer	74	73	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.36	-3	13	-16	14.6	12.3	2.23	13.1	19.0	-5.90
Arron Afflalo	77	76	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	11	-12	13.7	14.8	-1.08	14.5	15.4	-0.96
Timofey Mozgov	37	38	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	8	-6	13.1	14.5	-1.32	16.9	13.3	3.60
Chris Andersen	48	46	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.27	-7	17	-24	15.5	12.6	2.92	12.4	16.7	-4.30

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Brockman	18	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.22	7	-17	24	9.6	15.8	-6.19	19.3	12.8	6.53
Larry Sanders	20	19	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-11	12	13.6	14.9	-1.30	14.8	13.8	1.07
Tobias Harris	58	58	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.42	13	-23	36	13.4	16.5	-3.04	14.7	13.0	1.77
Drew Gooden	27	26	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.03	-2	-8	6	15.1	14.5	0.53	11.8	14.7	-2.86
Beno Udrih	43	45	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.21	4	-14	18	12.1	16.6	-4.56	15.1	13.1	2.06
Shaun Livingston	39	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.18	-1	-9	8	13.6	15.4	-1.76	16.9	12.1	4.85
Jon Leuer	37	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.02	-8	-2	-6	15.0	14.5	0.45	13.1	14.5	-1.50
Ersan Ilyasova	47	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-1	-8	16.2	13.3	2.91	12.9	14.9	-2.02
Carlos Delfino	63	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-3	-4	15.3	13.7	1.57	12.6	16.4	-3.80
Andrew Bogut	37	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.12	-17	7	-24	17.0	13.3	3.62	12.8	14.7	-1.96
Stephen Jackson	34	34	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.19	-20	10	-30	17.2	13.4	3.77	12.1	14.9	-2.88
Brandon Jennings	77	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.15	-11	1	-12	15.2	12.9	2.31	14.2	13.2	1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 103, HOU 85	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.17,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
SAC 107, MEM 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.23,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
NJN 106, LAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%