NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	2.7 [1171]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +8.3%
Houston Rockets	85		Comeback	1.1 [625]		LVP	Walt Williams (HOU): -7.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	-0.00	-0.02	10	71%	0.12	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	58%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.02	8	61%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Anthony Carter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.03	14	52%	0.04	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Anthony Mason	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	12	59%	0.04	1	-0.02	8	62%	0.00
A.C. Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don MacLean	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	13	46%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	11	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	10	54%	0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.02	14	58%	0.01	1	-0.01	10	100%	0.02
Jason Collier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Langhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	9	35%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	2	67%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	3	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.01	-0.04	18	45%	-0.04	2	-0.02	11	82%	0.02
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	8	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.0	26.2	16.6	28.0	1.8	28.2	126.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +52.1%

HOU -5.5%

HOU -2.0%

MIA +7.8%

HOU -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	14.8	16.8	15.5	112.0	94.4	100.9
season	16.3	16.3		98.4	104.6
opponent	14.9	16.1		102.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	13.7	15.3	15.4	14.8
HOU	15.7	20.0	16.7	15.2	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	62	61	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.27	25	-7	32	14.6	15.3	-0.62	18.1	14.0	4.11
Eddie Jones	75	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	8	2	14.9	14.8	0.03	17.4	14.3	3.12
Anthony Mason	72	72	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.14	19	-1	20	14.6	15.6	-1.02	17.7	13.2	4.57
Brian Grant	64	60	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.02	11	7	4	15.0	14.4	0.65	17.5	15.5	1.93
Anthony Carter	55	54	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.03	10	8	2	14.8	14.9	-0.16	16.2	17.7	-1.55
A.C. Green	42	42	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.07	6	12	-6	14.5	15.1	-0.55	15.8	17.7	-1.94
Bruce Bowen	53	52	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.00	6	12	-6	15.2	14.4	0.85	15.5	18.6	-3.04
Eddie House	32	31	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.01	3	15	-12	14.5	15.0	-0.58	15.5	17.5	-1.99
Don MacLean	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	18	-18	19.8	14.6	5.24	8.0	17.3	-9.34

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collier	12	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-19	20	12.2	17.5	-5.37	18.0	14.4	3.58
Dan Langhi	9	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-17	16	13.8	17.2	-3.38	16.9	14.6	2.26
Carlos Rogers	24	23	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-17	16	15.2	17.4	-2.20	15.4	14.7	0.78
Matt Bullard	19	19	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-14	10	12.6	17.9	-5.31	15.2	14.8	0.39
Kenny Thomas	44	44	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.17	1	-19	20	16.1	17.5	-1.34	13.7	15.9	-2.15
Walt Williams	27	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-14	10	18.3	16.2	2.05	13.2	15.5	-2.31
Moochie Norris	38	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-13	8	15.6	17.7	-2.20	13.8	15.6	-1.85
Maurice Taylor	31	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.15	-13	-5	-8	18.5	16.0	2.49	15.3	14.6	0.71
Cuttino Mobley	71	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	-11	4	16.9	16.7	0.17	15.2	13.5	1.66
Hakeem Olajuwon	49	51	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	-4	-10	18.2	15.2	3.03	15.2	14.4	0.78
Steve Francis	84	86	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.04	-18	0	-18	17.2	11.7	5.52	14.7	17.5	-2.84
Shandon Anderson	42	46	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.23	-25	7	-32	19.0	15.0	3.99	15.2	14.5	0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.17,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 107, MEM 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.23,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
TOR 115, NOP 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.11,0.18,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
NOH 112, LAC 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.14,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%