NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	10.0 [57]		MVP	Dorell Wright (GSW): +66.4%
Golden State Warriors	111		Comeback	35.9 [9]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -52.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.18,-0.1,0.02,0.02	-0.09	0.11	0.00	15	44%	0.18	4	-0.17	6	33%	-0.05
Joel Anthony	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03	0.07	-0.08	0.02	23	55%	0.01	2	-0.04	16	75%	0.04
Norris Cole	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	7	43%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	11	55%	-0.01	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	7	41%	-0.05	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.03
LeBron James	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.08,-0.15	-0.01	-0.14	0.01	19	57%	0.09	5	-0.24	8	75%	-0.05

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.16,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.66,0.66	0.66	0.07	0.59	0.00	15	67%	0.74	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.01	12	63%	0.19	2	-0.04	14	100%	0.09
David Lee	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.01	17	56%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Jenkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.06	-0.18	0.03	7	42%	-0.06	3	-0.20	5	80%	-0.03
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.17,-0.14,-0.26,-0.29,-0.33,-0.33,-0.5,-0.5,-0.57,-0.57,-0.67,-0.52	-0.52	-0.22	-0.30	0.00	25	41%	-0.17	9	-0.35	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.0	2.6	31.4	15.5	31.2	1.8	36.2	2.7	21.5	167.9
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +57.7%

MIA -0.4%

GSW +4.6%

MIA -6.0%

MIA -5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	13.1	15.4	15.6	95.5	99.1	102.8
season	15.5	15.2		105.6	103.6
opponent	15.4	15.8		106.8	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	12.1	10.9	13.3	15.6	15.6	13.1
GSW	15.6	16.8	13.9	15.7	14.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	49	48	0.47	-0.97	1.44	0.06	14	-19	33	12.3	13.8	-1.48	16.9	14.2	2.66
Norris Cole	52	52	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.08	2	-7	9	12.3	13.9	-1.56	14.3	16.3	-1.92
James Jones	7	7	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	-2	-1	16.4	12.9	3.52	7.6	15.9	-8.32
Dexter Pittman	8	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.02	-2	-3	1	10.9	13.3	-2.44	14.6	15.4	-0.81
Mario Chalmers	69	73	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.36	6	-11	17	13.3	12.9	0.37	15.9	14.4	1.44
Chris Bosh	79	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.30	-2	-3	1	12.7	14.2	-1.52	16.3	13.1	3.28
Udonis Haslem	67	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.16	-12	7	-19	14.2	11.5	2.71	14.5	16.6	-2.06
LeBron James	88	89	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.40	-5	0	-5	13.4	12.0	1.43	15.3	15.8	-0.51
Dwyane Wade	76	77	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.37	-8	3	-11	12.9	13.6	-0.72	16.5	12.9	3.66
Shane Battier	60	61	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.37	-15	10	-25	13.5	12.7	0.83	13.8	17.2	-3.42

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Rush	57	57	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.48	5	0	5	14.0	16.8	-2.87	13.8	12.5	1.31
Dorell Wright	79	77	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.38	8	-3	11	16.1	13.6	2.51	13.2	13.0	0.19
Nate Robinson	72	75	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.22	12	-7	19	15.6	15.0	0.58	13.5	12.4	1.06
Monta Ellis	92	89	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.36	4	1	3	15.5	14.8	0.64	13.5	11.7	1.81
David Lee	101	100	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.35	4	1	3	15.3	16.3	-1.00	13.4	10.3	3.18
Ekpe Udoh	41	41	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.06	7	-2	9	16.9	14.5	2.37	13.7	12.8	0.87
Dominic McGuire	18	16	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.07	-1	6	-7	12.3	16.0	-3.62	11.4	13.4	-1.98
Chris Wright	1	1	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	5	-5	9.0	15.4	-6.43	1.0	13.2	-12.25
Klay Thompson	30	32	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	2	1	12.4	16.5	-4.11	12.9	13.2	-0.32
Charles Jenkins	24	23	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	9	-13	17.0	14.9	2.12	11.9	13.5	-1.60
Kwame Brown	45	44	-0.39	0.89	-1.27	-0.00	-13	18	-31	16.6	14.5	2.08	11.4	14.3	-2.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.5,0.48,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.15,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.57,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 133, MIL 138	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.85,0.84,1	91.3%
TOR 120, ATL 127	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.3,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.54,0.31,0.28,0.55,0.58,1	90.0%
IND 103, CHA 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.33,0.21,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.22,0.05,0.27,0.46,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.84,1	89.8%