NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	5.5 [565]		MVP	Greivis Vasquez (NOH): +11.2%
New Orleans Hornets	88		Comeback	4.6 [389]		LVP	Chris Kaman (NOH): -16.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	10	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.02	0.10	0.00	10	52%	0.16	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	4	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.13	-0.01	0.07	17	64%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	11	57%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.14	0.03	-0.05	13	37%	0.04	5	-0.10	6	100%	0.04
Nene	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	7	33%	-0.07	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	11	73%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carldell Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	8	39%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Trey Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.02	13	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0.03	11	56%	0.05	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	13	52%	0.04	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.04	6	67%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.7	28.0	15.4	23.1	1.7	32.2	125.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +2.6%

DEN +20.7%

DEN +7.7%

DEN +19.8%

NOH -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOH	NBA	DEN	NOH	NBA
this game	15.4	17.3	15.6	109.1	100.0	102.8
season	14.5	16.3		107.5	99.2
opponent	15.7	15.8		103.4	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	14.6	15.3	15.6	15.4
NOH	15.1	16.7	19.7	17.9	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kosta Koufos	31	30	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.35	17	-9	26	15.0	15.7	-0.72	17.9	17.0	0.87
Andre Miller	57	58	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.27	13	-5	18	15.3	15.7	-0.38	16.8	18.2	-1.37
Danilo Gallinari	72	71	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	-2	12	15.5	15.3	0.15	17.6	15.9	1.68
Al Harrington	42	43	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.16	9	-1	10	15.6	15.3	0.31	16.4	18.1	-1.71
Arron Afflalo	62	61	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	-1	10	15.5	15.3	0.12	18.0	15.6	2.46
Rudy Fernandez	34	34	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	7	-6	15.0	15.7	-0.70	15.6	18.4	-2.73
Ty Lawson	66	65	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.24	-5	13	-18	15.5	15.3	0.21	17.3	17.2	0.16
Timofey Mozgov	23	24	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	11	-14	16.3	15.1	1.18	19.1	16.6	2.46
Chris Andersen	8	10	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.05	-7	15	-22	16.6	15.3	1.31	13.4	17.8	-4.39
Nene	45	44	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.09	-4	12	-16	15.3	15.6	-0.34	18.0	16.6	1.32

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Johnson	10	11	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.11	5	-13	18	16.5	17.4	-0.90	15.8	15.4	0.44
Emeka Okafor	54	57	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.08	3	-11	14	18.3	15.6	2.69	15.3	15.7	-0.48
Carldell Johnson	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-11	14	12.7	17.5	-4.79	17.3	15.4	1.97
Jason Smith	41	39	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-10	12	15.9	18.5	-2.65	14.8	15.9	-1.05
Jarrett Jack	71	72	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-7	6	18.1	14.0	4.08	15.3	15.9	-0.54
Greivis Vasquez	50	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-7	6	16.1	18.9	-2.86	15.0	16.0	-1.02
Al-Farouq Aminu	38	39	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	4	-16	18.4	16.4	1.98	16.1	14.9	1.20
Chris Kaman	52	50	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.06	-17	9	-26	17.7	16.8	0.88	15.7	15.0	0.71
Carl Landry	46	47	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.36	-7	-1	-6	16.5	18.1	-1.62	15.7	15.1	0.58
Marco Belinelli	75	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.15	-15	7	-22	17.3	17.0	0.35	15.4	15.6	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.8,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.79,0.78,0.68,0.54,0.43,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 114, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.1%
DEN 125, MEM 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.5,0.3,0.18,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.7%
NJN 84, ATL 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.56,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	92.5%