NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	11.0 [32]		MVP	Derrick Williams (MIN): +15.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Comeback	9.2 [187]		LVP	Wayne Ellington (MIN): -26.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.37,0.11	-0.12	0.20	-0.03	19	43%	0.20	5	-0.09	6	50%	-0.05
LeBron James	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.28,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.02	26	61%	0.36	4	-0.26	4	50%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	5	90%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	17	54%	0.14	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	60%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Norris Cole	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.03	-0.04	10	60%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	5	0%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.03	0.13	-0.00	6	71%	0.24	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.10	0.00	8	48%	0.16	2	-0.08	5	60%	-0.18
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.01	9	70%	0.10	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	71%	0.19	5	-0.23	3	67%	-0.02
Wesley Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.13	-0.00	19	57%	0.04	6	-0.18	6	67%	0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.26	-0.26	-0.03	-0.24	-0.00	13	42%	-0.23	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.6	26.6	15.6	24.0	1.8	39.1	136.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +25.6%

MIN -11.1%

MIN -4.4%

MIA +36.6%

MIA +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	13.3	14.7	15.6	100.0	98.1	102.8
season	15.5	15.3		105.6	102.6
opponent	15.1	15.8		104.7	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.4	13.1	13.0	13.6	13.3
MIN	15.4	14.1	14.7	14.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	79	79	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.55	14	-12	26	13.2	13.6	-0.39	14.9	13.8	1.10
Dwyane Wade	83	82	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.47	1	1	0	13.0	14.3	-1.26	15.2	12.8	2.41
Chris Bosh	76	77	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.44	-4	6	-10	12.9	14.3	-1.43	15.4	12.7	2.66
Udonis Haslem	59	58	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.33	-3	5	-8	13.6	12.8	0.77	13.4	16.4	-2.98
James Jones	5	7	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.21	1	1	0	14.0	13.2	0.76	10.7	15.0	-4.25
Joel Anthony	48	48	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.07	8	-6	14	13.5	13.1	0.41	16.0	13.6	2.39
Shane Battier	50	50	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.29	-5	7	-12	14.1	12.5	1.51	13.4	15.9	-2.45
Juwan Howard	20	19	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	1	0	12.6	13.4	-0.78	12.9	15.1	-2.12
Norris Cole	65	64	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.09	6	-4	10	13.2	13.4	-0.18	14.7	14.6	0.10
Mario Chalmers	30	31	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.03	-9	11	-20	13.3	13.3	0.03	15.4	14.4	1.06

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Randolph	55	55	0.42	-0.92	1.35	-0.10	18	-20	38	13.5	16.0	-2.43	13.5	13.1	0.37
Michael Beasley	44	45	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-1	0	15.4	14.1	1.31	13.7	12.9	0.80
Luke Ridnour	36	36	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	9	-20	16.4	13.7	2.71	13.1	13.4	-0.35
Wesley Johnson	36	36	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	9	-20	16.4	13.7	2.71	13.1	13.4	-0.35
Wayne Ellington	67	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.52	9	-11	20	13.7	16.4	-2.71	13.4	13.1	0.35
Ricky Rubio	67	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.52	9	-11	20	13.7	16.4	-2.71	13.4	13.1	0.35
Derrick Williams	46	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-6	10	14.0	15.2	-1.27	13.1	13.4	-0.34
Darko Milicic	36	36	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.14	-18	16	-34	16.2	13.9	2.37	13.3	13.3	-0.01
Anthony Tolliver	60	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.49	1	-3	4	14.1	15.5	-1.43	13.0	13.6	-0.62
Kevin Love	68	69	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.49	-10	8	-18	15.3	13.5	1.81	13.2	13.4	-0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.39,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.24,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.43,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.4,0.47,0.72,0.85,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 99, MIN 98	0.5,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.26,0.25,0.48,0.42,0.59,0.46,0.33,0.55,0.71,0.85,0.58,0	90.5%
NJN 95, CHA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.34,0.31,0.45,0.55,0.58,0	89.5%
SAC 91, UTA 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.42,0	89.5%