NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	6.7 [490]		MVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): +28.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	102		Comeback	1.4 [902]		LVP	James Anderson (SAS): -18.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.14	0.14	-0.00	5	108%	0.28	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Neal	0.18	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.13	-0.00	13	57%	0.22	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Steve Novak	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.08	0.00	6	71%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	10	55%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Danny Green	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	10	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	10	35%	-0.05	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.01
Chris Quinn	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.03	7	14%	-0.10	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	9	44%	-0.05	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.04
James Anderson	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.07	-0.08	0.04	9	28%	-0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.14	0.05	18	56%	0.23	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.00	12	61%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	10	54%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	-0.00	2	70%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	21	53%	0.13	4	-0.09	9	100%	0.07
Andrew Bynum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.04	-0.04	11	41%	0.06	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.5	33.9	19.7	27.3	3.6	30.0	143.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +30.2%

LAL +17.4%

LAL +6.0%

SAS -5.0%

LAL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	14.9	15.3	15.5	97.9	106.2	105.7
season	15.5	15.9		109.3	108.8
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.1	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.2	14.8	16.6	13.9	14.9
LAL	14.0	15.2	14.0	18.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	41	43	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.05	6	-15	21	14.4	15.3	-0.91	15.7	15.0	0.69
Matt Bonner	46	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.23	5	-14	19	15.5	14.3	1.19	14.4	16.1	-1.74
Richard Jefferson	45	46	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-5	1	15.4	14.4	0.94	14.9	15.6	-0.73
DeJuan Blair	53	53	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-7	5	14.1	15.9	-1.79	15.7	14.8	0.91
Danny Green	42	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-7	5	13.7	15.8	-2.05	15.7	14.9	0.79
Steve Novak	43	44	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-8	7	14.5	15.2	-0.77	15.7	14.9	0.76
James Anderson	46	45	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-8	7	14.7	15.1	-0.41	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Tiago Splitter	54	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.06	-14	5	-19	15.4	14.2	1.26	14.8	16.0	-1.19
Gary Neal	50	50	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.00	-16	7	-23	15.6	14.1	1.47	16.0	14.5	1.44
George Hill	55	55	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.19	-16	7	-23	15.3	14.3	1.05	15.0	15.7	-0.72

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	80	78	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.21	20	-11	31	15.0	16.7	-1.77	15.4	12.4	3.01
Derek Fisher	72	71	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.20	14	-5	19	14.5	17.6	-3.08	15.1	14.2	0.90
Metta World Peace	59	58	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	-2	13	15.6	14.7	0.97	14.7	15.2	-0.59
Kobe Bryant	71	72	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.07	10	-1	11	15.9	13.6	2.26	15.1	14.3	0.71
Lamar Odom	72	72	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	9	-9	15.2	15.4	-0.14	15.0	14.4	0.65
Luke Walton	33	33	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	12	-15	14.8	15.5	-0.69	15.1	14.8	0.36
Joe Smith	9	9	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	6	-3	15.1	15.3	-0.18	14.3	14.9	-0.61
Andrew Bynum	27	27	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	7	-5	16.0	15.0	1.01	13.7	15.3	-1.60
Shannon Brown	53	51	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.17	-5	14	-19	15.4	15.1	0.28	14.4	15.4	-0.98
Theo Ratliff	4	4	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.02	-7	16	-23	17.2	15.2	2.07	10.5	15.1	-4.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.67,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.57,0.71,0.72,0.58,0.57,0.65,0.78,0.76,0.89,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 115, UTA 119	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.83,0.89,0.99,0.99,1	92.6%
DET 82, ORL 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.73,0.78,0.68,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.81,0.59,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.9,0.9,1	92.5%
ATL 63, CLE 73	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.95,0.99,1	92.3%