NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	111		Excitement	5.7 [690]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +26.9%
Denver Nuggets	134		Comeback	1.6 [1129]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -7.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.05	0.02	13	90%	0.29	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.05	-0.04	23	51%	0.20	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.03
Lou Amundson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Reggie Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	16	53%	0.08	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	6	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Adrien	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	10	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	29%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.05	0.14	-0.07	17	52%	0.27	0	0.00	8	75%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	10	56%	0.10	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.04
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.02	10	64%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	6	77%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.02	0.06	7	83%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Nene	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.17	-0.01	0.16	8	78%	-0.00	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.00
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	15	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	13	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.5	32.5	15.5	24.3	2.7	29.2	133.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +21.2%

GSW -13.1%

DEN +12.6%

DEN +17.9%

DEN +11.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	13.7	15.5	108.8	131.4	105.7
season	14.8	14.3		106.6	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.2		106.1	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.9	16.4	12.4	14.5	14.6
DEN	14.5	10.7	14.8	14.8	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Thornton	26	25	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-24	25	16.9	13.8	3.16	10.7	14.6	-3.96
Jeff Adrien	8	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-23	23	12.0	14.8	-2.79	17.2	13.3	3.90
Vladimir Radmanovic	33	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.24	-12	-11	-1	14.9	14.4	0.55	14.5	13.3	1.21
Jeremy Lin	45	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.24	-14	-9	-5	16.0	13.5	2.48	13.0	14.2	-1.23
Ekpe Udoh	69	67	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	-11	-1	14.2	15.4	-1.22	14.3	12.5	1.75
Lou Amundson	38	39	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.26	-18	-5	-13	15.4	14.0	1.40	12.8	14.2	-1.45
Stephen Curry	76	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-15	7	14.5	14.7	-0.17	13.3	14.6	-1.21
David Lee	58	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	-12	1	13.9	15.5	-1.56	14.5	12.6	1.85
Dorell Wright	82	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.15	-22	-1	-21	14.5	14.8	-0.29	13.2	15.7	-2.59
Reggie Williams	75	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.02	-19	-4	-15	13.6	17.3	-3.76	14.5	11.2	3.21

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raymond Felton	71	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.19	25	-2	27	13.4	14.4	-1.03	15.1	13.4	1.69
J.R. Smith	65	66	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.10	19	4	15	13.7	13.6	0.11	14.5	14.7	-0.19
Kenyon Martin	68	67	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.07	12	11	1	13.2	14.6	-1.47	14.6	14.6	-0.00
Chris Andersen	48	49	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.01	13	10	3	12.1	15.0	-2.87	15.4	13.8	1.69
Ty Lawson	77	78	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.07	12	11	1	14.1	12.4	1.68	14.4	15.0	-0.62
Arron Afflalo	37	37	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	17	-11	13.4	13.8	-0.41	14.5	14.6	-0.13
Kosta Koufos	39	40	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.21	13	10	3	15.5	12.5	2.95	13.2	15.4	-2.21
Gary Forbes	67	66	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.29	11	12	-1	14.2	12.6	1.62	14.2	15.2	-0.97
Nene	34	33	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	22	-21	13.5	13.7	-0.25	15.2	14.3	0.91
Melvin Ely	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	20	-17	14.0	13.7	0.35	13.2	14.6	-1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.62,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, LAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
ATL 92, MIA 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.73,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.82,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%
PHX 86, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%