NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	5.9 [653]		MVP	James Jones (MIA): +25.0%
Atlanta Hawks	90		Comeback	1.1 [1036]		LVP	Josh Powell (ATL): -13.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.17,0.26,0.25,0.25	0.03	0.20	-0.02	5	64%	0.28	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	21	61%	0.25	7	-0.17	14	86%	0.05
Dwyane Wade	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	15	64%	0.12	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	10	71%	0.10	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Mario Chalmers	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	8	53%	0.04	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.01	4	64%	0.09	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	8	69%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	12	52%	0.12	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.14
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	7	44%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.06	13	59%	0.02	2	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	11	45%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	-0.02	6	8%	-0.08	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.11,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	6	33%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.0	31.1	15.7	29.1	2.5	37.4	146.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +48.2%

MIA +21.4%

ATL -18.0%

ATL -7.6%

MIA +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.1	16.5	15.5	108.9	103.4	105.7
season	16.0	16.5		109.0	104.0
opponent	15.5	15.6		105.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	14.9	16.1	17.5	16.1
ATL	18.3	16.4	15.2	16.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	56	55	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.10	17	-9	26	15.9	16.4	-0.57	17.2	15.2	2.01
Dwyane Wade	70	70	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.06	18	-10	28	15.4	18.6	-3.23	16.3	17.0	-0.67
LeBron James	81	78	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.27	7	1	6	15.7	19.3	-3.60	16.5	16.3	0.14
Mike Bibby	58	56	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.23	6	2	4	15.9	16.3	-0.40	16.1	17.1	-0.94
James Jones	41	39	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.39	-1	9	-10	16.3	15.9	0.46	15.8	17.0	-1.25
Mario Chalmers	32	32	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.01	4	4	0	16.3	15.9	0.40	16.5	16.4	0.11
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	40	39	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.14	6	2	4	14.7	17.2	-2.50	18.3	15.0	3.35
Mike Miller	23	20	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.14	-4	12	-16	17.8	15.5	2.28	16.6	16.4	0.25
Joel Anthony	43	40	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.22	-8	16	-24	17.4	14.9	2.50	15.8	17.0	-1.13
Juwan Howard	6	6	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	13	-18	23.0	15.6	7.40	9.7	17.0	-7.30

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Powell	40	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.29	5	-13	18	16.5	16.4	0.07	16.9	15.3	1.61
Josh Smith	43	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.09	-2	-6	4	16.7	16.2	0.52	16.2	16.0	0.27
Jamal Crawford	55	59	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.31	4	-12	16	15.9	17.4	-1.50	16.6	15.1	1.51
Jeff Teague	38	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.16	-3	-5	2	16.7	16.3	0.35	16.2	16.0	0.20
Joe Johnson	49	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.10	-5	-3	-2	16.3	16.7	-0.35	16.0	16.2	-0.20
Marvin Williams	35	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	3	-14	16.2	16.6	-0.39	15.5	16.5	-0.98
Damien Wilkins	41	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.14	-5	-3	-2	16.5	16.4	0.15	16.3	15.9	0.37
Al Horford	44	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.01	-10	2	-12	16.1	16.9	-0.79	15.5	16.7	-1.20
Kirk Hinrich	32	31	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.05	-12	4	-16	17.4	15.9	1.50	15.1	16.6	-1.51
Zaza Pachulia	58	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.32	-1	-7	6	16.6	16.1	0.48	16.0	16.2	-0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.24,0.39,0.38,0.22,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 81, LAL 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.16,0.05,0.04,0	94.6%
SEA 114, SAC 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.02,0,0	94.5%
PHI 93, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.08,0.17,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.08,0	94.3%