NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	114		Excitement	5.0 [825]		MVP	Chris Wilcox (SEA): +21.6%
Sacramento Kings	103		Comeback	1.1 [491]		LVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): -12.4%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Wilcox	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.20	0.05	0.03	9	86%	0.24	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.02
Luke Ridnour	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.06	-0.02	8	64%	0.14	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.03
Johan Petro	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Earl Watson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.03	0.05	5	75%	0.07	0	0.00	6	100%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.02	23	52%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.04	0.03	19	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.08	0.03	18	56%	0.16	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.02
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	14	61%	0.10	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	10	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	3	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	11	46%	0.01	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	6	62%	0.10	3	-0.17	1	0%	-0.03
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.07	0.05	20	48%	-0.11	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	29.4	15.4	26.1	1.8	37.0	136.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +8.9%

SEA +17.9%

SEA +2.2%

SEA +19.1%

SEA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAC	NBA	SEA	SAC	NBA
this game	14.7	14.5	15.4	115.2	105.1	104.5
season	15.4	14.7		105.5	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.4		106.0	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.1	12.2	15.6	16.0	14.7
SAC	16.9	14.9	13.2	13.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	82	82	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.08	19	-8	27	14.0	18.3	-4.33	14.3	15.5	-1.16
Rashard Lewis	92	91	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.07	16	-5	21	14.6	16.7	-2.16	14.1	20.4	-6.35
Ray Allen	83	82	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.10	14	-3	17	15.2	12.2	2.93	14.7	13.6	1.16
Luke Ridnour	71	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-4	19	14.2	16.1	-1.90	14.2	15.5	-1.37
Earl Watson	43	41	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	6	-1	14.6	14.8	-0.18	14.3	14.7	-0.33
Nick Collison	56	55	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	5	1	14.7	14.7	0.02	15.2	13.7	1.44
Johan Petro	36	36	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.16	-5	16	-21	15.8	14.1	1.77	15.1	14.2	0.83
Damien Wilkins	32	31	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.18	-15	26	-41	15.9	14.1	1.73	15.2	14.2	1.02

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	34	35	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.23	8	-19	27	16.2	13.7	2.52	17.1	13.4	3.77
Justin Williams	16	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.13	-9	-2	-7	16.8	14.1	2.73	14.2	14.8	-0.62
John Salmons	57	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.12	-5	-6	1	14.9	14.0	1.00	15.1	14.2	0.89
Corliss Williamson	78	79	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.32	1	-12	13	14.0	16.6	-2.66	15.0	13.5	1.51
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	69	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.03	-13	2	-15	14.8	13.8	1.05	14.5	15.3	-0.80
Kevin Martin	79	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.18	-9	-2	-7	14.1	16.3	-2.21	14.3	16.3	-2.06
Metta World Peace	93	93	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.19	-9	-2	-7	14.5	15.6	-1.13	14.8	12.7	2.17
Mike Bibby	64	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.05	-19	8	-27	13.7	16.2	-2.52	13.4	17.1	-3.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 98, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.24,0.39,0.38,0.22,0.03,0.01,0	94.5%
GSW 81, LAL 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.16,0.05,0.04,0	94.0%
PHI 93, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.08,0.17,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.08,0	93.9%