NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	82		Excitement	6.8 [468]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +17.4%
Atlanta Hawks	85		Comeback	1.7 [432]		LVP	Jason Richardson (ORL): -11.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1	0.12	-0.00	0.02	11	71%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	10	60%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.02,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	15	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.21,-0.03	0.07	-0.11	-0.01	17	59%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Gilbert Arenas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	13	41%	-0.03	2	-0.06	15	60%	-0.11
Jason Richardson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	7	19%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.05	0.03	18	67%	0.21	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.12	-0.00	15	53%	0.18	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.07	0.00	3	71%	0.13	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	77%	0.12	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0.00	8	55%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	9	28%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	29.0	16.6	22.4	2.5	35.2	131.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +48.6%

ATL +16.5%

ORL -1.2%

ORL -21.1%

ATL +7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	16.9	18.5	15.5	100.0	104.9	105.7
season	15.2	16.5		106.3	104.0
opponent	15.5	16.2		105.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.1	15.5	20.2	16.1	16.9
ATL	17.4	16.4	17.7	23.1	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Allen	3	2	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-3	3	15.0	17.0	-1.96	22.5	18.4	4.15
Earl Clark	11	12	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	5	-13	16.4	17.0	-0.61	15.2	19.0	-3.76
Hedo Turkoglu	67	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.40	7	-10	17	17.0	16.5	0.44	18.5	18.3	0.18
Dwight Howard	56	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.41	7	-10	17	16.7	17.2	-0.44	18.8	17.7	1.07
Gilbert Arenas	35	35	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	-6	3	-9	15.4	18.0	-2.65	18.4	18.5	-0.05
Jason Richardson	71	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-5	7	17.3	14.2	3.13	18.7	16.4	2.35
Ryan Anderson	48	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.42	2	-5	7	16.7	17.1	-0.34	19.2	17.4	1.79
Brandon Bass	57	56	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	12	-27	17.2	16.1	1.17	17.4	20.9	-3.56
Jameer Nelson	62	60	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	1	-5	17.3	15.7	1.57	18.7	17.7	1.07

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	77	77	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.38	10	-7	17	18.3	21.7	-3.46	17.0	14.8	2.23
Joe Johnson	74	75	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-6	15	18.9	14.1	4.72	17.2	14.0	3.16
Jason Collins	30	33	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	-8	19	16.2	19.8	-3.53	17.5	16.5	1.00
Josh Smith	67	69	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.37	-1	4	-5	18.1	20.0	-1.87	16.8	17.4	-0.59
Jamal Crawford	36	37	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.22	1	2	-1	19.3	17.8	1.58	17.2	16.6	0.59
Kirk Hinrich	51	53	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	0	3	18.2	18.9	-0.65	17.6	15.5	2.12
Marvin Williams	34	34	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.31	-8	11	-19	19.7	17.6	2.15	15.8	17.7	-1.87
Zaza Pachulia	25	24	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.19	-4	7	-11	20.0	17.7	2.29	15.9	17.3	-1.44
Damien Wilkins	1	0	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	3	-3	0.0	18.7	-18.69	0.0	16.9	-16.89
Etan Thomas	4	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	3	-3	20.0	18.4	1.62	14.0	17.0	-3.00
Jeff Teague	6	5	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	9	-15	15.5	18.7	-3.19	11.8	17.2	-5.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.85,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 83, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.98,0.89,0.94,0.92,1	92.6%
BOS 109, GSW 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.79,0.77,0.41,1	91.9%
ORL 94, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.71,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.9,1	91.9%