NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	104		Excitement	5.4 [757]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +15.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	95		Comeback	1.1 [941]		LVP	Michael Beasley (MIN): -12.7%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.16	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.03	-0.01	16	62%	0.16	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.00
Tony Allen	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	11	62%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Sam Young	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08	-0.01	0.07	-0.02	14	52%	0.12	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	15	52%	0.10	2	-0.06	12	75%	0.03
Jason Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	12	37%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	11	62%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.01	8	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	12	54%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Lazar Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	27%	-0.02	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Darko Milicic	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	10	40%	-0.03	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.02	0.02	17	36%	-0.08	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	27.5	15.8	25.4	2.5	46.2	144.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +45.0%

MEM +7.9%

MIN -10.7%

MEM +2.0%

MEM +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIN	NBA	MEM	MIN	NBA
this game	15.2	13.6	15.5	103.0	96.0	105.7
season	15.5	14.3		106.1	102.7
opponent	15.1	15.5		109.5	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.4	14.1	16.5	13.9	15.2
MIN	14.9	14.7	13.3	11.8	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Conley	78	76	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.26	13	-4	17	15.4	14.4	0.96	12.9	15.8	-2.84
Marc Gasol	67	65	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-3	15	16.1	13.3	2.80	13.9	13.1	0.74
Tony Allen	74	71	0.56	-0.07	0.63	0.13	15	-6	21	16.0	12.9	3.18	14.1	12.3	1.84
Zach Randolph	79	75	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.23	9	0	9	15.6	13.6	2.03	13.4	14.2	-0.74
Sam Young	83	83	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	9	-9	15.2	15.0	0.22	12.9	17.3	-4.42
Darrell Arthur	34	37	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	4	1	12.2	16.7	-4.53	13.5	13.7	-0.15
O.J. Mayo	43	44	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.07	2	7	-5	14.1	16.0	-1.85	14.1	13.2	0.91
Jason Williams	25	23	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.05	-3	12	-15	13.7	15.7	-1.99	15.8	12.9	2.84
Hasheem Thabeet	22	21	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.02	-8	17	-25	15.4	15.1	0.24	13.6	13.6	0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lazar Hayward	34	35	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.09	5	-14	19	12.9	14.0	-1.06	14.9	15.3	-0.40
Anthony Tolliver	40	39	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.06	1	-10	11	13.5	13.7	-0.14	14.3	15.7	-1.42
Nikola Pekovic	34	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.11	2	-11	13	14.9	12.9	1.99	15.4	15.1	0.32
Sebastian Telfair	29	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-8	7	15.1	13.0	2.12	14.1	15.6	-1.56
Wayne Ellington	53	53	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-10	11	13.2	14.1	-0.86	13.5	17.0	-3.55
Wesley Johnson	46	48	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	1	-11	14.1	13.2	0.86	17.0	13.5	3.55
Kevin Love	62	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.24	-7	-2	-5	13.5	13.8	-0.28	15.2	15.2	-0.03
Luke Ridnour	70	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.21	-8	-1	-7	13.0	15.1	-2.12	15.6	14.1	1.56
Darko Milicic	60	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	3	-15	13.4	13.9	-0.57	16.0	13.9	2.06
Michael Beasley	67	68	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.09	-16	7	-23	13.6	13.5	0.11	15.0	15.5	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.21,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.33,0.23,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 128, ORL 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.06,0.24,0.21,0.1,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
BOS 108, NYK 97	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.28,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.3%
OKC 90, UTA 80	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.07,0,0,0.01,0,0	94.2%