NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	82		Excitement	6.9 [437]		MVP	Glen Davis (BOS): +21.0%
Boston Celtics	85		Comeback	1.9 [439]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -32.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.22,0.11	0.13	-0.01	0.01	11	75%	0.18	2	-0.07	10	80%	0.03
Erick Dampier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	10	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	5	38%	-0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
LeBron James	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18	-0.04	-0.16	-0.02	21	49%	-0.09	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.12
Dwyane Wade	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.14	-0.07	-0.01	17	41%	-0.07	6	-0.13	5	60%	-0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.15	-0.00	11	62%	0.23	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.05
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.08	0.10	-0.01	12	61%	0.26	1	-0.07	7	100%	0.04
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	100%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	60%	0.10	4	-0.10	9	78%	-0.00
Avery Bradley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	14	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.10	0.01	10	44%	-0.08	1	-0.05	5	20%	-0.07
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.22	-0.11	-0.00	10	5%	-0.23	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.7	30.7	18.0	38.2	3.3	38.4	156.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +38.0%

BOS +14.1%

MIA -0.1%

MIA -0.4%

MIA -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	17.1	15.4	15.5	92.1	96.6	105.7
season	16.0	15.7		109.0	104.8
opponent	15.8	15.6		99.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	15.9	19.7	16.7	17.1
BOS	19.1	13.5	13.0	16.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	23	23	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-3	3	17.4	17.0	0.47	17.0	14.9	2.05
Joel Anthony	39	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.20	5	-8	13	16.9	17.2	-0.30	15.8	15.1	0.68
Erick Dampier	12	13	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	1	-5	16.2	17.2	-0.97	13.8	15.7	-1.87
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	37	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	0	-3	17.8	16.6	1.28	15.6	15.3	0.28
James Jones	12	14	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	3	-9	16.9	17.1	-0.20	12.9	15.9	-3.08
Eddie House	40	39	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-4	5	16.5	17.5	-0.98	15.2	15.6	-0.38
Chris Bosh	77	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.37	3	-6	9	17.1	16.9	0.20	15.9	12.9	3.08
LeBron James	79	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-4	5	17.3	15.2	2.13	15.7	13.4	2.31
Dwyane Wade	79	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-2	1	16.8	19.0	-2.15	15.7	13.7	1.97
Mike Miller	47	46	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.25	-11	8	-19	17.1	17.0	0.13	14.0	17.0	-2.93

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	71	71	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	-1	5	15.5	15.2	0.33	17.6	15.1	2.48
Rajon Rondo	78	79	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.41	-1	4	-5	15.7	13.4	2.31	17.3	15.2	2.13
Ray Allen	78	80	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.44	-2	5	-7	15.6	14.1	1.52	16.9	18.4	-1.51
Glen Davis	55	55	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.41	-2	5	-7	15.2	15.9	-0.70	16.7	17.8	-1.09
Kendrick Perkins	57	58	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.02	11	-8	19	15.0	16.2	-1.16	17.3	16.7	0.53
Kevin Garnett	64	65	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.38	-3	6	-9	16.0	13.9	2.16	17.3	16.6	0.69
Von Wafer	27	27	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	-1	5	14.8	15.7	-0.96	16.2	17.5	-1.25
Nate Robinson	10	10	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	-1	5	13.4	15.7	-2.31	15.2	17.3	-2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, CHI 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.84,0.85,0.84,1	92.9%
POR 100, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.69,0.7,0.81,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.83,1	92.0%
GSW 97, MEM 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.86,0.71,0.85,0.84,1	91.9%