NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	86		Excitement	8.0 [237]		MVP	Sam Young (MEM): +27.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	89		Comeback	5.4 [349]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -25.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.11	0.04	-0.00	12	71%	0.22	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jon Brockman	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.00	9	38%	-0.01	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Carlos Delfino	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	9	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.18,-0.16	0.04	-0.19	0.02	11	58%	0.11	2	-0.27	9	78%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.22	-0.06	-0.12	0.04	17	46%	-0.11	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24	-0.11	-0.12	0.00	9	25%	-0.15	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.13	0.13	-0.01	10	73%	0.27	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.00	0.10	-0.02	19	52%	0.20	3	-0.08	6	67%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	14	40%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	0.02	7	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	8	50%	-0.08
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	7	50%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Hamed Haddadi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	3	0%	-0.10	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.27,-0.27,-0.25	-0.25	-0.04	-0.21	0.00	11	54%	0.06	4	-0.31	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.8	32.2	16.4	24.3	1.6	42.4	139.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +35.2%

MIL -3.4%

MEM +12.8%

MEM +7.4%

MIL -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MEM	NBA	MIL	MEM	NBA
this game	16.1	14.4	15.5	90.5	94.7	105.7
season	16.2	15.5		100.1	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.7	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.0	17.7	16.7	14.3	16.1
MEM	13.4	14.3	17.6	12.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Brockman	13	11	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-7	11	18.7	15.7	3.01	14.4	14.4	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	54	52	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.25	4	-7	11	15.8	16.5	-0.65	15.5	13.0	2.57
Brandon Jennings	72	70	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-7	11	15.5	18.0	-2.57	14.2	14.7	-0.51
John Salmons	69	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.19	-1	-2	1	16.0	16.2	-0.19	14.2	14.7	-0.46
Carlos Delfino	44	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-1	-1	16.9	15.4	1.47	14.6	14.2	0.39
Keyon Dooling	47	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.21	-3	0	-3	15.9	16.2	-0.31	13.3	15.6	-2.27
Luc Mbah a Moute	35	38	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.04	-12	9	-21	17.4	15.3	2.11	13.8	14.7	-0.93
Corey Maggette	61	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.32	-7	4	-11	15.8	16.7	-0.95	14.3	14.5	-0.15
Andrew Bogut	80	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.47	-2	-1	-1	15.8	17.7	-1.87	14.7	12.7	2.03

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	53	49	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.54	14	-11	25	12.8	16.5	-3.71	16.5	15.7	0.77
Sam Young	83	84	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.43	4	-1	5	14.5	13.2	1.35	16.0	17.0	-1.02
Mike Conley	74	78	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.39	2	1	1	14.7	13.3	1.36	15.8	17.2	-1.39
Hamed Haddadi	16	14	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	-7	17	13.7	14.5	-0.75	16.1	16.1	0.06
Rudy Gay	77	80	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.37	1	2	-1	14.4	14.4	0.02	15.8	17.6	-1.79
Marc Gasol	68	71	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.18	-1	4	-5	15.0	12.8	2.16	16.4	15.2	1.13
Greivis Vasquez	14	12	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.00	2	1	1	13.2	14.6	-1.36	17.2	15.9	1.32
DeMarre Carroll	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	3	-3	14.8	14.3	0.45	17.6	16.0	1.59
Jason Williams	9	9	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	4	-5	11.9	14.6	-2.75	14.1	16.3	-2.19
Hasheem Thabeet	3	3	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	9	-15	14.3	14.4	-0.04	24.0	15.8	8.16
Darrell Arthur	68	70	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.03	-10	13	-23	15.2	12.2	3.01	15.9	16.7	-0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.56,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.43,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 80, DEN 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.26,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.53,0.45,0.67,0.91,1	92.4%
UTA 96, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.25,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.96,1	91.4%
SAC 103, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.57,0.46,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.23,0.15,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.37,0.47,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.86,0.85,1	91.0%