NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	103		Excitement	6.6 [498]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +40.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	109		Comeback	2.0 [406]		LVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): -17.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	-0.00	0.04	7	93%	0.15	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	13	61%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Omer Asik	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	8	45%	0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Derrick Rose	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0	0.07	-0.05	0.02	27	58%	0.14	4	-0.14	8	87%	0.04
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	15	45%	0.03	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Ronnie Brewer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	9	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.35,0.37,0.4	0.40	0.27	0.14	0.01	23	70%	0.40	0	0.00	14	86%	0.03
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.13	-0.01	9	67%	0.27	2	-0.07	9	89%	0.07
Andre Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.06	0.05	11	77%	0.26	3	-0.09	13	100%	0.08
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	8	60%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-0.02	12	25%	-0.12	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.7	30.2	15.3	27.3	2.8	46.2	150.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +6.6%

POR +48.2%

CHI -20.6%

POR +16.5%

CHI -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	POR	NBA	CHI	POR	NBA
this game	16.8	14.7	15.5	112.0	119.8	105.7
season	15.7	16.5		106.5	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.9		105.6	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.8	17.6	17.1	14.8	16.8
POR	14.8	13.2	15.6	15.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Watson	16	18	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.01	5	-11	16	17.5	16.6	0.87	16.3	14.3	2.06
Omer Asik	23	24	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.09	7	-13	20	15.4	17.2	-1.86	15.4	14.4	0.94
Ronnie Brewer	44	45	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-7	8	16.7	16.9	-0.24	14.3	15.0	-0.73
Keith Bogans	37	34	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	0	-6	19.0	15.3	3.75	16.1	13.8	2.29
Kurt Thomas	42	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	4	-14	18.1	15.7	2.42	14.1	15.2	-1.11
Taj Gibson	53	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.34	2	-8	10	15.2	18.9	-3.63	14.7	14.6	0.06
Kyle Korver	49	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-4	2	15.7	18.0	-2.29	14.1	15.4	-1.30
Luol Deng	54	53	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-1	-4	16.3	17.4	-1.13	14.9	14.4	0.49
Carlos Boozer	66	63	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	5	-16	17.7	14.5	3.13	14.8	14.4	0.37
Derrick Rose	76	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	5	-16	16.6	17.5	-0.87	14.1	17.2	-3.14

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	80	82	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.28	13	-7	20	14.7	14.2	0.57	17.6	9.8	7.83
Nicolas Batum	75	76	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.27	13	-7	20	13.8	18.6	-4.78	16.6	17.4	-0.79
Andre Miller	76	79	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.34	10	-4	14	15.1	12.7	2.33	17.1	15.0	2.08
Wesley Matthews	85	86	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-3	12	14.9	11.8	3.05	17.3	9.5	7.79
Rudy Fernandez	68	66	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	8	-10	14.1	16.4	-2.29	15.9	19.0	-3.04
Joel Przybilla	39	42	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	5	-4	17.3	12.7	4.60	18.4	15.4	2.94
Sean Marks	9	9	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	11	-16	13.4	14.8	-1.37	10.8	17.4	-6.66
Patty Mills	15	13	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	10	-14	12.7	15.1	-2.33	15.0	17.1	-2.08
Luke Babbitt	8	7	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	11	-16	13.2	14.8	-1.57	8.3	17.5	-9.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.78,0.72,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.9,0.8,0.78,0.95,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 96, SAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.58,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.65,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.97,1,1	93.7%
HOU 82, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.65,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.9,1,1,1	92.8%
MEM 94, GSW 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.8,0.71,0.58,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.76,0.91,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	92.6%