NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	120		Excitement	3.9 [1079]		MVP	Nene (DEN): +14.7%
Washington Wizards	109		Comeback	1.0 [1071]		LVP	John Wall (WAS): -6.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.02	0.01	9	84%	0.19	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.02	-0.05	14	56%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.01	-0.04	10	68%	0.16	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Al Harrington	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.16	0.00	0.12	12	81%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	11	56%	0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	0	50%	0.00	3	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Gary Forbes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	20	49%	0.03	4	-0.08	7	86%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	9	58%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	0.00	0.06	19	57%	0.03	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.11	-0.02	0.06	14	68%	0.08	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.02
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	9	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mustafa Shakur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	37%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	8	53%	0.01	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.7	34.5	15.6	26.5	2.5	30.4	138.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +28.0%

DEN +8.8%

DEN +15.0%

DEN +1.2%

WAS -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	WAS	NBA	DEN	WAS	NBA
this game	14.9	13.7	15.5	118.8	109.0	105.7
season	14.3	15.1		110.7	100.9
opponent	15.2	15.5		108.7	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.8	14.6	15.1	18.3	14.9
WAS	17.0	14.2	12.6	11.2	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	59	58	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.08	20	-9	29	14.5	15.5	-1.05	15.1	11.9	3.21
Arron Afflalo	81	78	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.15	9	2	7	15.9	11.0	4.81	14.0	13.0	1.01
Carmelo Anthony	75	75	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.01	13	-2	15	13.5	18.8	-5.30	14.6	11.1	3.49
Nene	57	55	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.01	11	0	11	13.1	17.2	-4.06	15.4	11.8	3.61
Kenyon Martin	49	48	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.00	11	0	11	14.5	15.3	-0.74	15.5	12.1	3.38
Al Harrington	58	58	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	11	-11	15.5	14.1	1.46	12.1	16.0	-3.86
Ty Lawson	61	62	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.25	-2	13	-15	15.0	14.8	0.18	12.3	16.0	-3.69
Melvin Ely	38	39	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	11	-11	17.1	13.6	3.52	11.7	15.0	-3.36
Gary Forbes	27	27	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.20	-7	18	-25	16.6	14.3	2.35	11.0	14.8	-3.75

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	9	9	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-15	19	12.9	13.8	-0.94	10.3	15.4	-5.03
Yi Jianlian	25	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.20	6	-17	23	11.2	14.6	-3.39	18.3	13.8	4.49
Cartier Martin	13	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-8	5	13.2	13.8	-0.59	15.0	14.9	0.10
Al Thornton	29	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-7	3	12.7	14.2	-1.43	13.8	15.4	-1.53
Trevor Booker	20	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	-2	-7	13.2	13.9	-0.68	15.4	14.8	0.59
Mustafa Shakur	30	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-4	-3	12.6	14.2	-1.68	14.2	15.2	-1.04
Kevin Seraphin	20	19	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	1	-13	16.1	13.1	3.01	9.9	16.1	-6.18
JaVale McGee	46	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-2	-7	14.2	13.3	0.92	16.0	13.9	2.16
John Wall	70	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-7	3	14.2	12.6	1.68	15.2	14.2	1.04
Andray Blatche	81	82	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-9	7	13.7	13.8	-0.06	14.6	16.4	-1.86
Rashard Lewis	70	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.17	-7	-4	-3	14.3	12.4	1.96	15.7	13.3	2.34
Nick Young	87	87	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-3	-5	13.8	13.2	0.59	14.9	15.0	-0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 91, MIN 65	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
ORL 100, CLE 84	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
CHA 101, LAL 82	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%