NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	77		Excitement	7.8 [279]		MVP	Kurt Thomas (CHI): +12.6%
Chicago Bulls	82		Comeback	2.3 [591]		LVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): -21.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeShawn Stevenson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	10	60%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06	-0.02	0.05	-0.04	14	41%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.01	9	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	37%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.01	16	47%	-0.06	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	4	20%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	7	57%	0.08	6	-0.23	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22	-0.10	-0.12	0.00	7	33%	-0.03	3	-0.19	4	50%	-0.03

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	-0.00	5	82%	0.18	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	7	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	3	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	11	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.01	-0.01	28	42%	0.07	4	-0.15	6	100%	0.05
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	5	31%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	13	26%	-0.09	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	33.0	18.5	26.2	2.8	36.3	145.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +14.4%

DAL -8.0%

CHI +29.6%

CHI +13.3%

CHI +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CHI	NBA	DAL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.4	16.7	15.5	88.5	94.3	105.7
season	15.7	15.7		108.5	106.5
opponent	15.9	15.7		99.2	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.1	17.2	16.4	14.6	16.4
CHI	14.9	15.5	17.0	19.7	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	56	56	0.45	-0.95	1.41	0.01	15	-20	35	17.2	14.9	2.31	14.9	20.1	-5.15
Sasha Pavlovic	30	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.05	-2	-3	1	16.8	16.1	0.68	16.6	16.8	-0.17
Brendan Haywood	29	30	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-4	3	16.4	16.3	0.03	17.0	16.6	0.39
Jason Kidd	69	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-6	7	16.1	17.2	-1.09	16.6	17.2	-0.53
Jose Juan Barea	18	18	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.11	-6	1	-7	17.2	16.1	1.09	17.2	16.6	0.53
Tyson Chandler	58	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-1	-3	16.3	16.4	-0.03	16.6	17.0	-0.39
Shawn Marion	45	45	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	-1	-3	15.4	17.3	-1.89	18.3	15.0	3.29
Dirk Nowitzki	69	69	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.32	-13	8	-21	16.5	15.8	0.66	17.0	15.9	1.01
Jason Terry	61	61	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.41	-11	6	-17	15.9	17.4	-1.52	17.1	16.0	1.12

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronnie Brewer	57	55	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.41	13	-8	21	17.4	15.6	1.80	15.9	17.2	-1.27
CJ Watson	29	29	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.36	12	-7	19	19.2	15.5	3.69	15.1	17.0	-1.83
Derrick Rose	79	79	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	3	-1	16.6	17.9	-1.24	16.3	16.6	-0.30
Kurt Thomas	54	54	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.42	-4	9	-13	16.8	16.7	0.08	16.4	16.3	0.13
Kyle Korver	32	36	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.15	14	-9	23	15.5	17.5	-1.92	16.7	16.1	0.58
Luol Deng	74	73	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.12	2	3	-1	16.3	19.2	-2.92	16.5	15.9	0.59
Omer Asik	37	35	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	2	1	16.1	17.2	-1.16	15.7	16.8	-1.12
Taj Gibson	33	35	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.22	-5	10	-15	17.8	16.1	1.77	16.9	16.0	0.93
Keith Bogans	40	39	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.00	-12	17	-29	15.7	17.6	-1.85	17.5	15.4	2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.86,0.78,0.68,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.85,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	91.5%
MEM 104, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.58,1	90.9%
ATL 89, BKN 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.53,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.97,0.74,1	90.7%