NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	8.5 [175]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +29.0%
Indiana Pacers	87		Comeback	21.4 [111]		LVP	Roy Hibbert (IND): -51.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.29	0.07	0.21	-0.00	15	58%	0.36	2	-0.07	13	77%	0.11
George Hill	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.10	0.00	13	52%	0.18	2	-0.07	5	60%	0.01
Gary Neal	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	44%	0.01	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	2	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.23,-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	11	38%	-0.04	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.08,-0.27	-0.02	-0.25	0.00	14	50%	0.03	2	-0.30	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.04	0.09	-0.02	11	43%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.11
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	19	55%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.05	-0.00	9	61%	0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	14	50%	0.09	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.07
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.04	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	9	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.51	-0.51	-0.15	-0.36	0.00	17	29%	-0.43	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.8	31.0	15.8	22.5	2.6	40.8	143.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +44.9%

SAS +21.4%

SAS +24.9%

IND -32.0%

IND -9.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	IND	NBA	SAS	IND	NBA
this game	15.1	17.0	15.5	100.0	97.8	105.7
season	15.5	14.7		109.3	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.2		104.5	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	14.4	16.0	15.3	15.1
IND	19.4	15.0	16.0	18.1	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	70	69	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.44	10	-7	17	15.1	15.3	-0.20	16.9	17.6	-0.72
Antonio McDyess	28	27	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.31	12	-9	21	15.1	15.2	-0.05	16.8	17.2	-0.38
Tim Duncan	63	63	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.52	0	3	-3	15.2	14.9	0.31	16.6	18.2	-1.68
Manu Ginobili	65	64	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.52	0	3	-3	14.7	16.4	-1.74	17.3	16.4	0.95
Tony Parker	64	65	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.22	2	1	1	15.2	15.0	0.26	16.5	18.6	-2.16
Richard Jefferson	37	38	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.00	1	2	-1	15.6	14.8	0.86	16.4	17.5	-1.04
Gary Neal	45	43	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.04	-2	5	-7	14.6	15.7	-1.04	17.7	16.4	1.26
Matt Bonner	30	29	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.11	-6	9	-15	15.7	14.9	0.83	19.0	16.1	2.85
DeJuan Blair	48	47	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.10	-2	5	-7	15.4	14.8	0.58	17.2	16.8	0.40

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roy Hibbert	69	69	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.25	6	-9	15	16.8	18.0	-1.30	14.5	17.2	-2.67
T.J. Ford	34	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	0	-3	18.7	16.0	2.74	14.6	15.5	-0.84
Paul George	16	15	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.12	-8	5	-13	22.0	16.0	6.04	15.1	15.1	-0.01
Brandon Rush	51	53	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-2	1	17.5	16.4	1.04	14.8	15.6	-0.81
Danny Granger	69	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.42	4	-7	11	16.0	20.5	-4.46	15.8	12.8	2.99
Mike Dunleavy	62	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-2	1	15.9	19.7	-3.87	14.5	16.5	-2.02
Tyler Hansbrough	66	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.52	4	-7	11	17.4	15.9	1.53	15.4	14.4	0.95
Jeff Foster	20	21	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	6	-15	18.0	16.8	1.30	17.2	14.5	2.67
Darren Collison	58	56	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.44	-7	4	-11	16.3	18.5	-2.16	15.4	14.7	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.51,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.9,0.87,0.75,0.71,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.78,0.67,0.54,0.85,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 91, HOU 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.73,0	90.5%
BKN 109, BOS 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.79,0.83,0.75,0.69,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.84,0.65,0.72,0.55,0.45,0.78,0.53,0	90.4%
MIN 97, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.84,0	90.3%