NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	93		Excitement	3.7 [1121]		MVP	Glen Davis (BOS): +5.8%
Charlotte Bobcats	62		Comeback	1.5 [473]		LVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): -18.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Davis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	12	53%	0.10	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Marquis Daniels	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	7	71%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.01	10	59%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	11	57%	0.09	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Avery Bradley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Harangody	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Von Wafer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	3	62%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Semih Erden	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	6	62%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Nate Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.03	5	60%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	5	70%	0.05	6	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	0.00	9	31%	-0.07	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	2	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Derrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	17%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	12	46%	0.01	3	-0.05	4	25%	-0.01
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	60%	-0.01	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	7	28%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.21	-0.00	-0.04	8	0%	-0.10	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.20	-0.02	-0.04	15	25%	-0.09	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.5	32.5	15.6	26.0	1.8	30.3	130.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +23.9%

BOS +16.1%

BOS +7.6%

BOS +2.0%

BOS +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CHA	NBA	BOS	CHA	NBA
this game	15.3	16.2	15.5	101.1	68.1	105.7
season	15.7	16.2		104.8	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.8		106.5	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.9	17.3	14.9	14.2	15.3
CHA	16.4	15.4	17.1	15.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Semih Erden	76	77	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.46	34	-3	37	15.6	14.1	1.50	16.7	13.3	3.42
Rajon Rondo	60	60	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.03	18	13	5	15.4	15.2	0.23	16.2	16.1	0.07
Ray Allen	58	58	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.02	16	15	1	14.8	16.1	-1.24	16.2	16.2	0.04
Kevin Garnett	44	45	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	21	-11	15.7	15.0	0.68	16.4	16.0	0.40
Paul Pierce	53	53	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.28	20	11	9	16.1	14.2	1.91	16.8	15.3	1.52
Marquis Daniels	48	48	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.41	23	8	15	15.4	15.2	0.10	16.0	16.4	-0.37
Glen Davis	49	48	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.21	14	17	-3	15.8	14.8	0.96	16.0	16.4	-0.37
Avery Bradley	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.18	6	25	-19	10.4	15.9	-5.50	13.8	16.4	-2.66
Nate Robinson	23	22	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.21	7	24	-17	16.8	14.8	1.97	17.1	15.9	1.21
Von Wafer	26	23	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.11	3	28	-25	14.2	15.7	-1.55	15.0	16.6	-1.52
Luke Harangody	13	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.18	4	27	-23	12.5	15.8	-3.31	12.7	16.7	-3.95

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	19	21	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.19	-5	-26	21	15.6	16.3	-0.75	13.6	15.8	-2.18
Derrick Brown	12	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.18	-6	-25	19	14.6	16.4	-1.83	10.9	16.0	-5.10
Matt Carroll	19	18	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.19	-8	-23	15	15.9	16.2	-0.29	16.3	15.1	1.28
Shaun Livingston	37	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.42	-18	-13	-5	16.3	16.1	0.25	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Dominic McGuire	31	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.12	-9	-22	13	15.9	16.3	-0.36	14.0	16.0	-2.05
Nazr Mohammed	33	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	-23	15	15.1	16.8	-1.70	16.1	14.9	1.21
Kwame Brown	48	50	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	-19	7	17.1	15.2	1.88	14.7	16.0	-1.24
D.J. Augustin	61	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.01	-12	-19	7	16.2	16.1	0.11	15.6	14.8	0.80
Gerald Wallace	69	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.21	-20	-11	-9	16.5	15.3	1.19	16.0	13.3	2.67
Stephen Jackson	59	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.33	-28	-3	-25	16.3	16.0	0.32	15.8	14.4	1.46
Boris Diaw	67	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.33	-29	-2	-27	16.2	16.1	0.07	15.8	14.1	1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 106, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.14,0.19,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
PHI 89, BOS 80	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0	95.6%
UTA 111, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%