NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	100		Excitement	9.3 [86]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +88.8%
Washington Wizards	99		Comeback	7.7 [240]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -34.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.89	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.89	0.13	0.77	0.01	19	62%	0.99	3	-0.10	14	57%	-0.02
Quentin Richardson	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.01,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.13	0.10	0.01	12	71%	0.25	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
JJ Redick	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	3	89%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	5	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	11	37%	-0.03	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.34	-0.05	-0.30	-0.01	13	42%	-0.28	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.19,0.24,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.09	0.20	0.00	15	66%	0.36	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.15,0.29,0.24	0.24	0.06	0.18	0.00	23	52%	0.31	2	-0.07	14	86%	0.04
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	5	57%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.02	6	56%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.08
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	11	42%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	12	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.6	27.4	16.3	30.6	2.6	36.3	143.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +28.8%

ORL +11.8%

ORL +9.1%

WAS -2.3%

ORL +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.7	15.3	15.5	112.4	108.8	105.7
season	15.2	15.1		106.3	100.9
opponent	15.2	16.2		108.7	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.0	15.7	15.8	18.5	16.7
WAS	17.2	15.0	13.6	15.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	77	77	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.42	3	-2	5	16.8	15.7	1.09	15.4	14.9	0.55
Rashard Lewis	56	57	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.47	1	0	1	16.7	16.6	0.14	16.0	14.1	1.87
Quentin Richardson	59	59	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	-5	11	17.4	15.4	1.96	15.8	14.5	1.26
Jameer Nelson	56	57	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.44	-2	3	-5	16.5	17.0	-0.48	16.2	13.8	2.39
JJ Redick	45	48	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.15	3	-2	5	16.8	16.5	0.30	15.1	15.6	-0.54
Mickael Pietrus	56	57	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.33	-4	5	-9	16.1	17.7	-1.54	15.1	15.7	-0.57
Chris Duhon	36	37	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	0	1	16.6	16.7	-0.10	14.0	16.2	-2.22
Jason Williams	15	15	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	2	-3	16.6	16.7	-0.12	15.1	15.4	-0.30
Brandon Bass	33	34	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	1	-1	16.6	16.7	-0.14	14.1	16.0	-1.87
Marcin Gortat	12	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	3	-5	15.7	16.8	-1.09	14.9	15.4	-0.55

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cartier Martin	22	20	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.24	1	-2	3	14.0	15.7	-1.74	17.6	16.4	1.17
Trevor Booker	21	19	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.17	0	-1	1	14.6	15.5	-0.97	15.3	17.1	-1.82
Hilton Armstrong	22	20	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.23	-6	5	-11	18.1	14.4	3.66	17.0	16.6	0.39
JaVale McGee	49	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.68	15	-16	31	14.1	16.7	-2.59	16.9	16.4	0.53
Kevin Seraphin	20	18	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	9	-19	15.2	15.4	-0.15	15.7	16.9	-1.22
Alonzo Gee	59	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-3	5	14.7	16.4	-1.73	16.2	17.6	-1.45
Nick Young	63	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.56	7	-8	15	14.6	17.0	-2.38	17.0	16.1	0.93
Gilbert Arenas	68	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.28	-7	6	-13	16.2	12.8	3.34	16.5	17.3	-0.83
Kirk Hinrich	61	63	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.42	-6	5	-11	16.2	13.5	2.66	16.8	16.4	0.39
Andray Blatche	70	70	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.64	-1	0	-1	15.5	14.6	0.97	17.1	15.3	1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.62,0.52,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.69,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 84, NJN 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.9,0.79,0.77,0.59,0	91.6%
SAC 93, MIN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.69,0.8,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.83,0.84,0	91.1%
MIA 100, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.58,0	91.1%