NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	8.3 [194]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +15.6%
Atlanta Hawks	97		Comeback	16.9 [39]		LVP	Bob Sura (ATL): -29.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.09	0.01	12	70%	0.25	2	-0.11	6	50%	-0.04
Eddie Jones	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.07	0.07	-0.02	-0.02	17	64%	0.14	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	13	52%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Rasual Butler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	70%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.03	-0.08	0.10	0.00	10	42%	0.09	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.06
Rafer Alston	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Caron Butler	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	12	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.05	0.00	17	64%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jason Collier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	53%	0.00	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Michael Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Hansen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	18	55%	0.12	3	-0.14	4	100%	0.03
Mamadou N'diaye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.06,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	0.00	23	50%	-0.10	4	-0.10	12	92%	-0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.29	-0.29	-0.06	-0.24	-0.01	9	54%	0.04	3	-0.33	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.4	25.5	15.4	22.5	2.6	38.2	132.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +57.1%

ATL -24.8%

ATL -18.1%

MIA +34.0%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	17.1	15.1	15.7	111.1	109.0	100.5
season	16.2	15.3		99.3	98.2
opponent	15.5	15.9		103.0	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	17.1	19.8	15.6	17.1
ATL	15.6	15.6	15.5	13.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	59	60	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.51	13	-10	23	16.9	17.3	-0.37	15.7	13.8	1.97
Eddie Jones	68	69	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.39	13	-10	23	17.0	17.3	-0.32	16.0	11.9	4.05
Brian Grant	69	69	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.42	12	-9	21	17.4	16.0	1.41	15.7	12.8	2.89
Rafer Alston	56	54	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.46	0	3	-3	16.8	17.5	-0.73	14.5	16.0	-1.55
Dwyane Wade	63	61	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.31	-4	7	-11	17.0	17.3	-0.26	14.9	15.5	-0.65
Lamar Odom	66	66	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.00	-3	6	-9	17.3	16.4	0.96	15.0	15.3	-0.35
Rasual Butler	27	25	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.03	-9	12	-21	17.3	17.0	0.37	13.1	15.9	-2.74
Udonis Haslem	42	41	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.06	-7	10	-17	16.8	17.4	-0.59	14.0	16.0	-2.07

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Hansen	32	31	0.14	-0.64	0.79	0.14	0	-3	3	13.2	16.1	-2.87	15.8	17.8	-1.99
Michael Bradley	6	6	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.04	5	-8	13	11.5	15.3	-3.85	17.3	17.1	0.27
Jason Collier	46	46	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-5	7	15.3	14.9	0.44	18.3	15.8	2.51
Mamadou N'diaye	8	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	2	-7	17.5	14.9	2.65	13.8	17.4	-3.67
Jacque Vaughn	10	10	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	4	-11	18.4	14.7	3.73	12.8	17.6	-4.81
Bob Sura	69	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.43	1	-4	5	15.3	14.4	0.89	17.7	14.6	3.08
Jason Terry	74	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.50	3	-6	9	15.0	15.7	-0.77	17.6	14.5	3.14
Chris Crawford	69	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	15.6	13.3	2.24	17.2	16.6	0.60
Boris Diaw	54	55	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.41	-4	1	-5	14.4	16.1	-1.69	16.3	18.4	-2.12
Stephen Jackson	77	78	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.50	-8	5	-13	15.3	13.8	1.45	17.1	16.7	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 84, NJN 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.9,0.79,0.77,0.59,0	92.6%
POR 81, PHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.64,0.85,0.83,0.93,0.79,0.9,0.47,0	92.4%
CLE 97, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.23,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.37,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.85,0.72,0	91.5%