NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	93		Excitement	4.6 [933]		MVP	T.J. Ford (IND): +11.8%
Miami Heat	77		Comeback	1.7 [174]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -28.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
T.J. Ford	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.03	-0.05	10	59%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Rush	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	15	59%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.01	8	61%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	-0.00	-0.04	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	0.05	21	43%	-0.04	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	6	100%	0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	13	58%	0.04	4	-0.05	10	70%	-0.01
LeBron James	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	14	58%	0.09	6	-0.11	15	73%	-0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	6	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.29	-0.03	-0.04	13	10%	-0.16	5	-0.12	5	20%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.8	29.2	16.8	29.0	1.8	32.9	139.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +31.9%

MIA -9.3%

IND +5.0%

IND +19.9%

IND +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	14.5	15.5	96.9	82.8	105.7
season	14.7	16.0		103.1	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.4		102.3	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.3	14.5	14.6	19.8	15.9
MIA	13.4	15.5	14.8	14.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. Ford	50	48	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.18	26	-10	36	16.6	15.2	1.36	15.6	13.4	2.18
Solomon Jones	43	39	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.04	21	-5	26	15.0	16.6	-1.60	15.5	13.9	1.62
Brandon Rush	78	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.02	17	-1	18	15.4	17.9	-2.44	14.5	14.8	-0.28
Mike Dunleavy	32	32	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.09	16	0	16	16.1	15.8	0.33	16.4	13.6	2.83
James Posey	43	42	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.09	15	1	14	16.8	15.2	1.56	15.5	13.8	1.65
Tyler Hansbrough	14	14	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	11	-6	15.2	16.0	-0.81	13.3	14.8	-1.49
Josh McRoberts	55	51	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	15	-14	15.7	16.2	-0.59	14.0	15.2	-1.17
Danny Granger	77	75	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	19	-22	16.6	13.3	3.30	13.8	17.7	-3.94
Darren Collison	46	45	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.21	-10	26	-36	15.2	16.6	-1.36	13.4	15.6	-2.18
Roy Hibbert	42	44	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.15	-8	24	-32	16.0	15.9	0.12	13.9	15.1	-1.21

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	28	29	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.09	6	-22	28	11.2	16.0	-4.77	19.4	14.4	5.08
Carlos Arroyo	52	52	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-16	16	14.3	14.9	-0.59	14.7	17.3	-2.52
LeBron James	81	84	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-15	14	14.0	18.3	-4.35	16.2	13.6	2.65
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	45	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	-9	2	14.9	14.2	0.62	14.4	17.4	-2.98
Jamaal Magloire	29	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	-7	-2	15.4	14.2	1.21	16.7	15.6	1.07
Eddie House	41	44	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	0	-16	14.9	14.3	0.59	17.3	14.7	2.52
James Jones	38	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	-3	-10	16.1	13.5	2.63	16.6	15.4	1.27
Dwyane Wade	74	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.07	-18	2	-20	14.6	14.2	0.49	15.3	18.0	-2.62
Chris Bosh	77	80	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.05	-22	6	-28	15.0	12.4	2.55	15.1	20.1	-5.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 103, WAS 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
LAL 115, WAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
LAL 108, VAN 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%