NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	94		Excitement	5.9 [660]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +21.7%
Utah Jazz	82		Comeback	1.0 [631]		LVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): -15.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.09	-0.03	17	67%	0.25	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.04	-0.05	16	47%	0.11	3	-0.06	8	62%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	61%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	8	50%	0.09	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
George Hill	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	15	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Matt Bonner	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	6	0%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.02	11	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	11	48%	0.07	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	19	47%	0.04	2	-0.02	11	73%	-0.01
Kyrylo Fesenko	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	64%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	38%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.03	7	62%	0.04	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	10	38%	0.04	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.7	30.6	15.0	30.2	2.4	30.6	132.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +29.7%

UTA -10.2%

SAS +25.1%

SAS +3.7%

SAS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	16.7	15.3	15.5	104.4	91.1	105.7
season	15.5	15.9		109.3	106.4
opponent	15.3	15.2		108.2	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.9	13.5	17.3	20.9	16.7
UTA	14.7	16.5	14.8	15.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Blair	51	49	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.08	21	-9	30	18.0	14.9	3.14	15.2	15.5	-0.26
Tony Parker	66	66	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.06	21	-9	30	16.4	17.4	-0.95	15.6	14.5	1.06
Richard Jefferson	63	63	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.06	18	-6	24	16.6	16.8	-0.20	15.8	14.3	1.47
Tim Duncan	62	62	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.00	18	-6	24	16.1	18.0	-1.92	15.9	14.0	1.92
Manu Ginobili	66	66	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.00	7	5	2	17.4	14.7	2.74	14.8	16.9	-2.12
George Hill	49	50	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.24	-4	16	-20	16.2	17.2	-1.04	15.6	15.0	0.58
Antonio McDyess	33	32	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	17	-22	16.8	16.6	0.13	14.1	16.0	-1.95
Gary Neal	27	27	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.08	-6	18	-24	16.8	16.6	0.20	14.3	15.8	-1.47
Matt Bonner	33	35	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.08	-10	22	-32	15.4	17.4	-2.07	15.7	15.1	0.69

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	36	33	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.05	6	-18	24	14.6	15.8	-1.14	16.2	17.0	-0.83
Kyrylo Fesenko	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-12	12	13.0	15.4	-2.40	24.5	16.5	8.00
Ronnie Price	26	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-14	16	16.2	15.0	1.22	15.4	17.2	-1.76
CJ Miles	41	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-17	22	15.3	15.4	-0.10	16.8	16.5	0.30
Earl Watson	19	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-10	8	17.1	14.8	2.26	16.9	16.6	0.26
Deron Williams	71	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	-2	-8	14.8	17.1	-2.26	16.6	16.9	-0.26
Paul Millsap	74	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	0	-12	14.6	18.6	-4.02	17.1	15.1	2.00
Raja Bell	64	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	2	-16	15.0	16.2	-1.22	17.2	15.4	1.76
Andrei Kirilenko	65	68	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.07	-17	5	-22	16.2	13.1	3.05	16.2	18.2	-2.05
Al Jefferson	51	55	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.09	-18	6	-24	15.9	14.5	1.43	16.7	16.6	0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.21,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.03,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 86, DET 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	94.4%
PHI 82, NJN 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.33,0.24,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.01,0.04,0.03,0,0	94.0%
ORL 93, BOS 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.01,0.09,0	93.8%