NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	95		Excitement	7.9 [255]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +45.4%
Dallas Mavericks	98		Comeback	13.8 [138]		LVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): -19.8%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.15	0.08	0.00	8	100%	0.26	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Willie Green	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.01	7	79%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12	0.04	0.06	-0.02	7	59%	0.15	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	53%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	6	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12	0.04	-0.15	0.01	16	61%	-0.04	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
David West	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	14	40%	-0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Emeka Okafor	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	10	23%	-0.11	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.45	0.45	0.12	0.34	0.00	19	59%	0.50	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.3,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.09	0.14	-0.01	8	89%	0.34	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.04	0.02	12	68%	0.22	3	-0.12	13	77%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	4	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dominique Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.08	0.00	7	44%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.07	0.00	6	36%	-0.06	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.6	28.4	16.6	29.0	1.8	33.4	138.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +59.8%

DAL +7.2%

DAL +1.2%

NOH -15.3%

NOH -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DAL	NBA	NOH	DAL	NBA
this game	16.0	16.5	15.5	106.7	111.4	105.7
season	16.2	15.7		104.6	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.9		103.8	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.0	14.0	14.2	20.7	16.0
DAL	15.3	16.7	17.9	16.3	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	40	40	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.12	2	-5	7	15.1	16.7	-1.61	17.4	15.8	1.59
David West	64	65	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.08	7	-10	17	16.1	15.7	0.41	16.7	16.2	0.49
DJ Mbenga	14	13	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.01	3	-6	9	13.2	16.5	-3.32	17.1	16.4	0.64
Jason Smith	30	30	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.11	-1	-2	1	15.5	16.3	-0.72	16.1	16.8	-0.71
Jerryd Bayless	34	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	1	-5	14.7	16.8	-2.11	15.6	17.0	-1.42
Chris Paul	57	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-2	1	17.0	14.2	2.75	17.0	15.6	1.42
Trevor Ariza	67	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.48	-2	-1	-1	15.4	17.8	-2.34	16.7	16.0	0.71
Peja Stojakovic	36	37	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.37	-6	3	-9	17.3	15.1	2.22	15.4	17.4	-2.04
Emeka Okafor	60	59	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.50	-4	1	-5	16.4	15.2	1.24	16.9	15.9	1.00
Willie Green	43	42	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.49	-9	6	-15	16.9	15.2	1.64	16.0	17.0	-1.07

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	40	41	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.47	10	-7	17	16.4	16.6	-0.25	17.6	14.6	2.96
Jason Kidd	60	61	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.43	9	-6	15	17.2	15.1	2.04	16.8	14.3	2.52
Jose Juan Barea	41	41	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.50	6	-3	9	15.2	17.7	-2.46	16.7	15.4	1.29
Jason Terry	63	65	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.38	9	-6	15	16.3	17.0	-0.65	16.3	15.1	1.21
Dirk Nowitzki	71	69	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.43	3	0	3	16.0	18.9	-2.91	16.1	15.7	0.40
Ian Mahinmi	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	3	-3	0.0	16.5	-16.53	15.0	16.0	-1.02
DeShawn Stevenson	30	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	2	-1	16.9	16.4	0.50	14.4	16.8	-2.48
Dominique Jones	8	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.05	-5	8	-13	16.1	16.6	-0.45	12.1	16.4	-4.27
Shawn Marion	50	51	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.12	-3	6	-9	16.8	16.2	0.66	15.9	16.1	-0.16
Brian Cardinal	29	30	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.02	-8	11	-19	18.1	15.8	2.34	15.4	16.3	-0.97
Brendan Haywood	48	48	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.06	-7	10	-17	16.6	16.4	0.25	14.6	17.6	-2.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.38,0.24,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.24,0.45,0.84,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 86, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.12,0.17,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.45,0.77,0.58,1	92.5%
PHI 76, HOU 77	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.16,0.24,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.19,0.54,0.85,0.72,1	92.0%
HOU 98, NYK 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.31,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.32,0.55,0.65,0.84,1	91.9%