NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	90		Excitement	4.2 [1005]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +10.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	76		Comeback	2.4 [307]		LVP	John Salmons (MIL): -19.9%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.00	-0.09	15	56%	0.12	3	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Armon Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.00	0.03	4	125%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.03	0.04	-0.05	14	45%	0.07	2	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Dante Cunningham	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.03	8	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Roy	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	17	47%	0.04	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.01	8	78%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	4	75%	0.05	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.03	7	42%	-0.02	6	-0.12	5	80%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.17	-0.05	-0.02	14	17%	-0.19	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.7	30.3	16.5	26.4	2.5	25.5	127.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +48.0%

MIL -6.1%

MIL -3.4%

POR +15.1%

MIL -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIL	NBA	POR	MIL	NBA
this game	16.8	16.3	15.5	103.4	87.4	105.7
season	16.5	16.2		106.7	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.7		100.9	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.0	16.0	16.6	19.0	16.8
MIL	13.5	18.3	18.6	15.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	80	79	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.07	15	-1	16	16.8	16.7	0.14	16.4	14.9	1.53
Andre Miller	48	49	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.18	8	6	2	16.9	16.7	0.17	17.0	15.3	1.73
Wesley Matthews	52	52	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.19	18	-4	22	17.2	16.3	0.93	15.3	17.7	-2.33
Brandon Roy	68	68	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	8	6	2	16.6	17.8	-1.22	16.1	16.7	-0.60
Dante Cunningham	49	50	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.05	10	4	6	17.4	16.2	1.21	16.5	15.9	0.55
Marcus Camby	37	37	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	13	-12	16.2	17.3	-1.08	16.4	16.2	0.15
Rudy Fernandez	27	28	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.05	9	5	4	16.3	17.1	-0.73	17.0	15.9	1.14
Armon Johnson	41	40	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	10	-6	16.8	16.9	-0.11	16.0	16.5	-0.54
Nicolas Batum	25	24	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.23	-5	19	-24	17.3	16.7	0.62	16.7	16.1	0.61
Fabricio Oberto	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.05	2	12	-10	16.4	16.9	-0.51	13.0	16.6	-3.59

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	10	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	14.7	16.5	-1.77	21.5	16.2	5.28
Larry Sanders	10	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	14.7	16.5	-1.77	21.5	16.2	5.28
Ersan Ilyasova	22	22	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.12	2	-16	18	15.8	16.4	-0.66	19.6	15.9	3.68
Keyon Dooling	22	24	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-17	20	15.7	16.5	-0.78	18.2	16.3	1.95
John Salmons	55	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.10	-8	-6	-2	15.7	17.2	-1.56	15.6	18.7	-3.04
Luc Mbah a Moute	26	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.14	-1	-13	12	15.2	16.7	-1.47	17.9	16.3	1.59
Andrew Bogut	55	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-10	6	16.0	16.7	-0.67	16.3	17.8	-1.47
Drew Gooden	50	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.11	-11	-3	-8	16.4	16.1	0.27	15.9	17.9	-2.01
Jon Brockman	22	19	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.11	-14	0	-14	17.6	15.8	1.78	15.7	17.2	-1.48
Corey Maggette	29	31	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	-2	-10	16.8	16.0	0.79	17.1	16.7	0.45
Brandon Jennings	67	66	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.03	-15	1	-16	16.5	15.6	0.86	16.2	19.0	-2.85
Carlos Delfino	67	65	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.05	-18	4	-22	17.2	13.1	4.11	16.3	18.3	-1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 87, MIA 73	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.18,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
IND 111, CHA 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.5,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
UTA 87, PHX 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%