NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	88		Excitement	2.8 [1225]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +12.0%
Denver Nuggets	110		Comeback	1.0 [1030]		LVP	Andrei Kirilenko (UTA): -9.5%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	9	60%	0.04	1	-0.01	7	71%	0.00
Jeremy Evans	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	0.00	0.06	5	79%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Raja Bell	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.01	-0.07	11	37%	0.00	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyrylo Fesenko	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.03
Francisco Elson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
CJ Miles	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	4	20%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Ronnie Price	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	-0.06	5	43%	-0.00	4	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
Deron Williams	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.03	10	57%	-0.00	4	-0.05	10	90%	0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.13	-0.00	-0.03	4	20%	-0.02	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.21	0.00	0.09	11	88%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.03	7	56%	0.06	2	-0.02	11	91%	0.02
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	62%	0.03	1	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	11	43%	0.04	3	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.02	16	55%	0.04	4	-0.07	10	90%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	0.00	-0.06	11	33%	-0.05	4	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	1.8	38.6	15.8	26.2	1.8	31.8	145.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +20.2%

DEN +9.2%

DEN +8.0%

DEN +11.3%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.7	13.6	15.5	86.3	108.9	105.7
season	15.9	14.3		106.4	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.3		106.1	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	14.3	15.4	13.2	16.2	14.7
DEN	13.4	13.4	14.0	13.8	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Miles	27	27	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.15	-6	-16	10	15.6	14.4	1.23	13.9	13.6	0.33
Jeremy Evans	25	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.11	2	-24	26	14.5	14.8	-0.33	12.6	14.0	-1.39
Kyrylo Fesenko	22	22	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.18	-9	-13	4	17.4	14.0	3.36	12.6	13.9	-1.35
Francisco Elson	32	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-17	12	16.3	14.0	2.31	13.8	13.6	0.19
Gordon Hayward	44	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	-14	6	16.1	13.7	2.40	12.4	14.6	-2.21
Earl Watson	39	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	-14	6	16.1	13.9	2.15	14.3	13.3	1.00
Ronnie Price	29	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	-14	6	15.2	14.5	0.72	12.9	13.9	-1.09
Deron Williams	61	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.01	-10	-12	2	14.1	15.7	-1.56	13.4	14.0	-0.60
Raja Bell	65	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.07	-13	-9	-4	13.6	16.7	-3.15	13.8	13.4	0.38
Andrei Kirilenko	42	43	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	-9	-4	13.5	15.6	-2.08	14.5	13.0	1.55
Paul Millsap	59	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.10	-15	-7	-8	13.8	16.0	-2.24	14.0	13.1	0.90
Al Jefferson	65	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.09	-17	-5	-12	14.2	15.6	-1.45	14.2	12.6	1.56

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	74	75	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.07	19	3	16	14.1	12.4	1.74	14.3	15.8	-1.48
Chauncey Billups	60	62	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.20	22	0	22	13.8	13.4	0.43	14.4	15.2	-0.74
Carmelo Anthony	76	76	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.19	18	4	14	13.9	12.9	1.01	14.6	15.0	-0.37
Nene	49	50	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	11	0	14.1	13.2	0.81	14.7	14.8	-0.09
Al Harrington	48	49	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.12	4	18	-14	13.4	13.8	-0.43	15.7	13.8	1.90
Shelden Williams	58	59	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.09	11	11	0	14.1	13.0	1.12	14.3	15.4	-1.12
Ty Lawson	52	50	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	16	-10	13.5	13.8	-0.26	14.6	14.9	-0.32
J.R. Smith	46	46	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.14	11	11	0	12.6	14.5	-1.90	16.2	13.5	2.72
Melvin Ely	23	23	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.19	10	12	-2	12.2	14.1	-1.90	15.6	14.5	1.14
Gary Forbes	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	22	-22	12.8	13.8	-0.92	13.7	14.9	-1.11
Renaldo Balkman	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	24	-26	13.1	13.7	-0.54	10.6	15.1	-4.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 90, ATL 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
SAC 96, NJN 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1	97.3%
MIN 83, SEA 108	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%