NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	6.6 [476]		MVP	Charlie Villanueva (DET): +30.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	98		Comeback	18.8 [48]		LVP	Ramon Sessions (MIN): -11.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.18,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31	0.11	0.19	-0.00	10	64%	0.31	0	0.00	5	100%	0.06
DaJuan Summers	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19	0.05	0.13	-0.01	8	67%	0.22	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	6	56%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.02	14	65%	0.10	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Austin Daye	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.01	7	60%	0.11	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.03
Chucky Atkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0	-0.03	0.03	0.00	6	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.07	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03
Jason Maxiell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.01	8	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Will Bynum	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	10	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.18	0.18	0.18	0.03	0.03	15	75%	0.23	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	15	53%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	3	22%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.02	10	65%	0.08	4	-0.13	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.02	-0.02	10	41%	0.01	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Ramon Sessions	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	12	41%	-0.03	2	-0.09	10	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	25.2	17.7	25.8	2.5	39.5	136.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +28.7%

DET +13.1%

DET +8.8%

DET +2.7%

MIN -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIN	NBA	DET	MIN	NBA
this game	15.9	15.6	15.3	113.2	106.5	106.0
season	16.8	14.7		104.0	100.1
opponent	14.8	15.2		109.8	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.4	17.1	17.6	13.8	15.9
MIN	14.6	12.9	18.4	16.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	82	83	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.26	17	-12	29	15.5	19.9	-4.40	15.9	12.3	3.57
Chucky Atkins	44	42	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.43	9	-4	13	15.7	16.1	-0.42	15.6	15.5	0.08
Charlie Villanueva	49	48	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.40	9	-4	13	15.7	16.2	-0.59	14.9	16.3	-1.46
Austin Daye	52	54	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.37	10	-5	15	16.1	15.7	0.31	17.6	12.7	4.93
DaJuan Summers	54	53	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.51	3	2	1	15.6	16.4	-0.77	14.5	17.0	-2.46
Ben Wallace	40	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.12	3	2	1	16.4	15.5	0.85	15.6	15.5	0.14
Tayshaun Prince	57	59	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.14	0	5	-5	16.0	15.7	0.30	15.5	15.6	-0.08
Will Bynum	51	53	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.00	-11	16	-27	16.3	15.4	0.89	15.2	16.1	-0.86
Jason Maxiell	26	27	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	0.08	-15	20	-35	16.8	15.6	1.24	14.3	16.1	-1.78

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	37	36	0.36	-0.86	1.22	-0.02	13	-18	31	13.9	16.7	-2.74	16.0	15.9	0.08
Sasha Pavlovic	26	26	0.31	-0.81	1.11	-0.05	12	-17	29	14.6	15.9	-1.31	18.0	15.1	2.96
Wayne Ellington	15	14	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-9	13	12.0	16.2	-4.25	19.1	15.4	3.72
Ryan Hollins	5	5	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-2	-1	15.2	15.6	-0.37	13.2	16.1	-2.88
Ryan Gomes	62	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-4	3	15.5	15.7	-0.27	15.3	17.1	-1.76
Damien Wilkins	32	34	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	7	-19	16.0	15.3	0.73	16.0	15.9	0.17
Darko Milicic	68	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.41	-5	0	-5	16.1	13.9	2.22	15.3	17.5	-2.20
Ramon Sessions	77	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.31	-9	4	-13	16.2	12.0	4.25	15.4	19.1	-3.72
Al Jefferson	70	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.34	-10	5	-15	15.9	14.6	1.27	16.7	13.0	3.68
Corey Brewer	68	67	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.33	-14	9	-23	15.8	14.9	0.92	15.5	17.1	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.73,0.8,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.62,0.53,0.64,0.53,0.27,0.32,0.16,0.09,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 84, LAC 78	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.85,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.94,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.76,0.68,0.53,0.6,0.47,0.31,0.36,0.14,0.16,0	92.6%
OKC 107, LAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.9,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.09,0.16,0	91.9%
TOR 96, ATL 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.65,0.64,0.45,0.22,0.14,0.04,0.02,0.01,0	91.6%