NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	104		Excitement	3.5 [1094]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +9.8%
Toronto Raptors	88		Comeback	1.1 [885]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (TOR): -12.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.02	-0.02	10	58%	0.11	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.01	10	69%	0.10	1	-0.00	6	67%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	23	54%	0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Taj Gibson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	69%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Hakim Warrick	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	56%	0.02	1	-0.00	6	67%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.01	3	71%	0.06	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.07	9	33%	0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Richard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	10	61%	0.09	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	16	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Sonny Weems	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	22	41%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	4	112%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick O'Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	8	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	3	75%	-0.02	1	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	6	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	12	21%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.4	27.5	17.7	27.1	2.3	25.7	126.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +30.5%

CHI +11.5%

CHI +6.3%

CHI +0.2%

CHI +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	15.9	14.4	15.3	109.5	92.6	106.0
season	14.7	15.0		101.9	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.7		111.5	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.0	14.9	16.2	17.7	15.9
TOR	13.8	15.8	14.5	13.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joakim Noah	78	76	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.06	18	-2	20	16.2	14.9	1.30	14.4	14.2	0.26
Luol Deng	56	56	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	1	14	15.2	17.0	-1.79	14.7	13.9	0.84
Derrick Rose	76	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.16	7	9	-2	15.8	16.4	-0.53	14.4	14.3	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	72	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	5	6	16.3	14.7	1.65	13.9	15.8	-1.90
Taj Gibson	56	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	7	2	15.3	16.9	-1.66	14.5	14.2	0.35
Jannero Pargo	37	39	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.12	11	5	6	16.5	15.6	0.97	14.9	14.0	0.85
Ronald Murray	51	51	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	13	-10	16.2	15.6	0.62	14.2	14.5	-0.29
Hakim Warrick	31	30	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	14	-12	16.7	15.6	1.13	14.3	14.4	-0.10
Brad Miller	14	16	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.04	4	12	-8	15.9	16.0	-0.11	15.2	14.2	0.98
Chris Richard	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	11.2	16.2	-4.90	9.0	14.6	-5.60

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick O'Bryant	11	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-21	26	11.3	14.8	-3.50	16.7	15.8	0.82
Marcus Banks	13	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-23	30	11.2	14.9	-3.72	17.9	15.6	2.24
Rasho Nesterovic	2	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-14	12	12.5	14.4	-1.91	20.0	15.9	4.10
Marco Belinelli	43	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-12	8	14.8	14.0	0.86	16.7	15.3	1.33
Reggie Evans	20	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-16	16	12.5	14.9	-2.30	14.6	16.3	-1.77
DeMar DeRozan	26	25	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-11	6	13.6	14.7	-1.09	15.9	16.0	-0.04
Jarrett Jack	48	47	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	-5	-6	15.4	13.3	2.16	15.7	16.1	-0.40
Amir Johnson	47	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.19	-16	0	-16	14.7	14.0	0.74	16.7	15.2	1.54
Hedo Turkoglu	64	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-11	-5	-6	14.7	13.7	1.03	15.7	16.4	-0.64
Sonny Weems	73	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.00	-12	-4	-8	14.5	13.9	0.60	15.8	16.5	-0.68
Jose Calderon	49	48	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.07	-16	0	-16	14.5	14.2	0.33	15.5	16.4	-0.82
Andrea Bargnani	79	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	-1	-14	14.5	13.9	0.59	15.6	17.4	-1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.34,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 84, ORL 57	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
DAL 112, DET 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
DET 98, CHA 81	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%