NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	105		Excitement	5.6 [675]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +25.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	90		Comeback	1.9 [448]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -11.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.25	0.11	0.14	-0.01	17	63%	0.28	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Glen Davis	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	5	75%	0.16	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Ray Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.15	0.01	0.11	7	84%	0.07	1	-0.02	11	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	11	55%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Nate Robinson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	14	42%	0.00	4	-0.12	8	62%	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.02	0.02	11	83%	0.13	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.04	10	68%	0.12	3	-0.08	11	91%	0.04
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	13	36%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	12	39%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Primoz Brezec	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	11	50%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	9	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.04	0.05	6	50%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	31.2	15.5	25.6	2.7	43.1	143.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +33.4%

BOS +4.7%

BOS +7.4%

BOS +3.3%

BOS +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	16.6	16.7	15.3	122.1	103.4	106.0
season	15.5	15.5		105.7	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.7		101.8	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.3	17.2	14.9	17.3	16.6
MIL	18.7	16.3	16.4	15.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	49	51	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.01	18	-3	21	16.8	16.5	0.27	16.3	17.2	-0.97
Tony Allen	38	39	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	5	5	16.6	16.7	-0.11	17.1	16.3	0.81
Rajon Rondo	70	70	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.13	11	4	7	16.7	16.4	0.25	16.2	18.4	-2.18
Michael Finley	33	32	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.10	12	3	9	15.4	17.4	-2.07	16.2	16.9	-0.69
Ray Allen	61	61	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.02	11	4	7	17.0	15.7	1.30	16.3	17.4	-1.04
Paul Pierce	65	67	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.00	5	10	-5	17.1	15.3	1.79	16.4	17.3	-0.90
Nate Robinson	26	26	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.16	8	7	1	15.7	17.0	-1.36	16.8	16.6	0.22
Shelden Williams	14	15	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	12	-9	16.5	16.7	-0.17	17.7	16.4	1.30
Rasheed Wallace	42	42	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	15	-15	17.0	16.3	0.70	17.4	16.0	1.45
Kendrick Perkins	31	32	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	16	-17	17.0	16.4	0.56	17.5	16.1	1.39
Marquis Daniels	1	0	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.00	-2	17	-19	1.0	16.8	-15.82	0.0	16.7	-16.66

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Primoz Brezec	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-12	9	7.0	17.0	-10.00	13.5	16.7	-3.21
Royal Ivey	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-12	9	7.0	17.0	-10.00	13.5	16.7	-3.21
Luc Mbah a Moute	28	29	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.08	-3	-12	9	16.5	16.7	-0.28	15.8	17.1	-1.33
Dan Gadzuric	14	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-12	9	17.0	16.6	0.41	16.5	16.7	-0.17
Carlos Delfino	68	67	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-11	7	16.4	17.6	-1.18	17.1	15.1	2.04
Kurt Thomas	45	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-12	9	17.6	15.7	1.87	17.2	16.1	1.05
Brandon Jennings	71	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-5	-5	16.7	16.3	0.42	16.9	15.4	1.53
Luke Ridnour	27	27	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	-4	-7	16.9	16.5	0.34	15.5	17.2	-1.63
Ersan Ilyasova	51	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.10	-11	-4	-7	16.5	16.8	-0.26	16.7	16.6	0.05
John Salmons	73	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	-5	-5	17.0	14.9	2.06	16.9	15.4	1.48
Jerry Stackhouse	52	51	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	-1	-13	16.7	16.5	0.24	16.3	17.1	-0.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.23,0.1,0.04,0.13,0.08,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 104, BKN 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.69,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.34,0.44,0.33,0.4,0.22,0.26,0.15,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0	94.4%
LAL 104, SAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.21,0.28,0.19,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
CHI 97, SAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.01,0,0.01,0,0	94.2%