NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	139		Excitement	11.8 [13]		MVP	Deron Williams (UTA): +90.9%
Utah Jazz	140		Comeback	3.1 [499]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -16.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0.57	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.57	0.02	0.56	0.01	18	53%	0.62	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
James Harden	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.07	0.22	0.00	7	75%	0.34	2	-0.05	6	83%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	5	81%	0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.01	3	87%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nenad Krstic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.08	0.21	-0.21	0.08	29	64%	-0.00	3	-0.08	12	100%	0.10
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.16,-0.16	0.01	-0.16	0.00	15	63%	0.12	7	-0.28	13	92%	0.08

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.91	0.91	0.30	0.65	0.04	23	74%	0.95	1	-0.04	11	91%	0.05
Wesley Matthews	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.12	-0.01	11	54%	0.17	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.06
CJ Miles	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.24,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.01	0.16	0.02	12	53%	0.21	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.04
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.00	-0.01	20	60%	0.13	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.03
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.02	11	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	12	69%	0.16	4	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Othyus Jeffers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.6	2.0	32.3	16.5	29.9	1.8	40.8	1.6	16.5	169.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +58.0%

OKC -9.2%

OKC -19.3%

UTA +16.7%

UTA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	UTA	NBA	OKC	UTA	NBA
this game	14.0	14.4	15.3	123.0	126.1	106.0
season	15.0	15.3		106.2	109.5
opponent	15.0	15.5		104.5	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
OKC	13.0	12.2	16.5	15.0	12.8	14.0
UTA	13.7	13.5	14.1	15.0	19.1	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	62	63	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.35	13	-14	27	12.7	15.5	-2.80	14.6	14.2	0.41
Serge Ibaka	45	45	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.21	5	-6	11	14.3	13.7	0.59	13.5	15.1	-1.53
Nick Collison	45	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-2	3	14.2	13.8	0.33	13.7	14.9	-1.19
Eric Maynor	32	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	0	-1	15.5	13.3	2.15	13.2	14.9	-1.73
Thabo Sefolosha	63	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.25	-2	1	-3	13.8	14.1	-0.29	15.2	13.5	1.68
Russell Westbrook	81	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-1	1	13.3	15.5	-2.15	14.9	13.2	1.73
Nenad Krstic	49	48	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	11	-23	15.2	13.0	2.13	14.2	14.6	-0.45
Kevin Durant	95	92	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.51	2	-3	5	13.3	17.6	-4.28	14.6	13.5	1.17
Jeff Green	93	90	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.41	-11	10	-21	14.7	10.6	4.08	14.5	14.0	0.54

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Miles	94	96	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.45	6	-5	11	14.5	14.2	0.24	14.4	11.6	2.72
Deron Williams	88	91	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.34	9	-8	17	14.2	15.3	-1.03	14.3	12.7	1.53
Wesley Matthews	87	90	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.41	4	-3	7	14.8	13.2	1.63	13.5	15.8	-2.29
Carlos Boozer	94	96	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.49	-1	2	-3	14.6	13.6	1.01	13.4	17.4	-4.00
Mehmet Okur	60	62	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.19	7	-6	13	14.2	14.7	-0.42	14.7	13.0	1.67
Paul Millsap	59	59	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.28	-1	2	-3	14.4	14.4	-0.00	14.4	13.4	0.98
Othyus Jeffers	5	4	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	3	-5	12.8	14.5	-1.72	10.7	14.1	-3.32
Ronnie Price	23	22	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.13	-8	9	-17	15.3	14.2	1.03	12.7	14.3	-1.53
Kosta Koufos	9	9	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.02	-3	4	-7	14.1	14.5	-0.36	12.1	14.1	-2.00
Kyle Korver	36	36	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.05	-6	7	-13	13.7	14.8	-1.06	14.4	13.8	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.83,0.79,0.62,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.74,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.85,0.95,0.46,0.45,0.63,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 118, DEN 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.74,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.91,0.99,0.97,0.74,0.46,0.39,0.63,0.43,0.27,1	90.1%
MIL 126, LAC 128	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.51,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.96,0.54,0.39,0.64,0.83,0.59,1	89.2%
ORL 103, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.55,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.95,0.89,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.85,1	88.8%