NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	6.3 [532]		MVP	Jamal Crawford (ATL): +28.7%
Atlanta Hawks	91		Comeback	1.4 [1184]		LVP	Ben Gordon (DET): -20.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Bynum	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.05	-0.01	7	81%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	8	55%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
DaJuan Summers	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	18	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Kwame Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	38%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	0%	-0.05
Rodney Stuckey	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.05	0.05	-0.09	0.01	19	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	13	31%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.11	-0.09	0.00	7	0%	-0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.29	0.29	0.20	0.10	0.01	18	72%	0.34	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.01	13	62%	0.17	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	6	54%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	9	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	8	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	0.01	14	36%	-0.12	3	-0.07	8	37%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	32.0	15.8	25.2	2.4	32.2	136.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +56.0%

DET -5.7%

ATL +26.1%

DET -25.9%

DET -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	18.1	16.8	15.3	102.4	111.0	106.0
season	16.8	16.0		104.0	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.2		106.0	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	21.7	16.4	15.5	19.4	18.1
ATL	14.3	16.3	16.5	20.6	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DaJuan Summers	9	7	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-5	4	18.1	18.1	0.02	16.0	16.9	-0.88
Austin Daye	18	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-2	-2	17.9	18.1	-0.19	15.5	17.1	-1.56
Kwame Brown	53	51	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-9	12	17.2	19.7	-2.51	17.2	16.2	1.03
Will Bynum	59	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-6	6	17.6	19.2	-1.56	16.9	16.5	0.44
Rodney Stuckey	69	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-4	2	17.5	21.1	-3.66	17.0	16.0	0.97
Ben Gordon	38	35	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	4	-14	19.9	16.6	3.37	16.3	17.2	-0.91
Tayshaun Prince	65	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-4	2	18.1	17.9	0.19	17.1	15.5	1.56
Charlie Villanueva	36	36	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	3	-12	19.6	17.0	2.58	16.4	17.1	-0.74
Jonas Jerebko	68	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-1	-4	18.0	18.4	-0.37	16.8	16.7	0.06

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	57	59	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-6	18	17.6	15.0	2.65	17.9	18.5	-0.57
Jamal Crawford	59	61	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.22	11	-5	16	16.9	16.5	0.39	18.3	17.6	0.63
Josh Smith	74	75	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.32	7	-1	8	16.8	17.2	-0.49	17.7	21.5	-3.77
Mike Bibby	56	60	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.17	8	-2	10	16.7	17.1	-0.40	17.2	20.5	-3.36
Maurice Evans	44	45	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.16	7	-1	8	16.6	17.1	-0.51	18.6	17.4	1.20
Marvin Williams	66	65	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.25	-5	11	-16	16.3	18.9	-2.57	17.6	19.8	-2.15
Zaza Pachulia	29	28	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.13	-1	7	-8	17.1	16.6	0.46	19.6	17.3	2.23
Mario West	1	0	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	8	-10	5.0	17.0	-11.95	0.0	18.1	-18.10
Joe Smith	8	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	7	-8	17.2	16.8	0.49	21.5	17.7	3.77
Jeff Teague	16	14	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	12	-18	16.9	16.8	0.09	19.5	17.8	1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.84,0.79,0.65,0.78,0.8,0.93,0.94,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 87, PHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.6%
NYK 76, IND 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.95,1,1,1,1	92.6%
MIA 92, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.91,1	92.6%