NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	100		Excitement	6.5 [485]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +25.9%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	1.8 [696]		LVP	Vince Carter (ORL): -15.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.05	-0.01	11	82%	0.23	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.05	-0.01	9	78%	0.20	1	-0.01	5	40%	-0.05
JJ Redick	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.06	-0.02	10	62%	0.15	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.05
Jason Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	16	47%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.00	4	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Dwight Howard	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	7	40%	-0.08	1	-0.04	11	18%	-0.18
Vince Carter	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	15	39%	-0.14	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.21	0.07	0.02	25	64%	0.32	2	-0.06	17	82%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.16	0.11	0.03	12	85%	0.27	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.09	0.01	14	50%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Hairston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	9	45%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	10	32%	-0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.6	25.4	16.4	27.4	2.6	38.4	143.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +21.3%

SAS +13.6%

SAS +5.7%

SAS +8.5%

SAS +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.2	16.5	15.3	108.7	124.4	106.0
season	15.4	15.9		110.1	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.9		103.4	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.3	16.1	18.1	12.8	15.2
SAS	15.1	16.6	17.9	16.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	12	12	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.02	5	-17	22	15.4	15.1	0.30	16.7	16.5	0.28
Matt Barnes	34	33	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.08	-5	-7	2	15.2	15.1	0.04	16.3	16.6	-0.33
Jason Williams	30	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-9	6	16.4	14.5	1.85	15.4	17.0	-1.57
Dwight Howard	43	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-10	8	16.3	14.2	2.07	17.5	15.5	1.98
JJ Redick	46	45	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-6	0	14.8	15.5	-0.70	15.6	17.4	-1.87
Mickael Pietrus	44	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-9	6	16.1	14.2	1.89	16.8	16.2	0.56
Marcin Gortat	49	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-2	-8	14.2	16.3	-2.07	15.5	17.5	-1.98
Jameer Nelson	62	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	-3	-6	14.5	16.4	-1.85	17.0	15.4	1.57
Vince Carter	60	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-2	-8	14.7	16.0	-1.35	17.1	15.3	1.82
Rashard Lewis	80	78	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.13	-17	5	-22	15.1	15.4	-0.30	16.5	16.7	-0.28

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	60	60	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-1	14	16.6	16.3	0.37	15.5	14.5	0.95
Manu Ginobili	68	70	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.05	16	-4	20	16.4	16.9	-0.47	14.9	16.0	-1.17
Richard Jefferson	71	73	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.13	11	1	10	16.8	15.3	1.58	15.0	15.6	-0.54
George Hill	70	72	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.00	12	0	12	16.0	18.2	-2.17	15.1	15.2	-0.12
Tim Duncan	46	46	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	2	8	16.7	16.3	0.38	15.2	15.1	0.17
Roger Mason Jr.	48	48	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.25	-3	15	-18	17.1	15.8	1.32	16.1	14.1	2.03
Matt Bonner	56	58	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	10	-8	16.5	16.5	0.02	15.1	15.3	-0.27
Malik Hairston	1	3	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	12	-12	26.0	16.4	9.60	8.0	15.4	-7.39
Ian Mahinmi	0	2	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	12	-12	0.0	16.5	-16.51	2.0	15.4	-13.44
Keith Bogans	12	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	12	-12	14.7	16.8	-2.03	14.5	15.2	-0.79
DeJuan Blair	18	17	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	13	-14	15.6	16.7	-1.13	16.4	14.9	1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.51,0.39,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.7,0.7,0.83,0.68,0.87,0.88,0.78,0.86,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 71, ATL 82	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.68,0.63,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.63,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.92,1,1,1	93.7%
SEA 99, ORL 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.48,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.62,0.75,0.75,0.91,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.86,0.98,1,1,1	93.4%
DEN 87, VAN 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.4%