NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	9.4 [87]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +56.6%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	16.9 [91]		LVP	Jarrett Jack (TOR): -18.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.57	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.16,0.57	0.03	0.54	0.01	22	50%	0.60	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.08
Nene	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.09	-0.01	12	67%	0.22	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Joey Graham	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.00	12	55%	0.05	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.07
Chauncey Billups	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.05	-0.09	0.03	-0.01	18	42%	0.07	3	-0.12	7	100%	0.04
Anthony Carter	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	3	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.22	0.22	0.01	0.20	-0.01	13	48%	0.26	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.04
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.00	8	88%	0.21	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.00	8	70%	0.19	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	55%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Reggie Evans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	61%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.04	-0.02	16	50%	0.10	5	-0.11	4	50%	-0.12
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.10	-0.01	11	35%	-0.11	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	11	29%	-0.07	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.4	29.4	15.0	29.2	2.7	38.8	140.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +30.7%

TOR -16.4%

TOR -1.2%

DEN +29.0%

DEN +7.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	14.9	15.3	15.3	101.0	101.1	106.0
season	14.4	15.0		110.3	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		111.5	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	14.8	16.4	12.8	14.9
TOR	16.4	14.6	13.6	16.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	37	37	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.57	9	-8	17	13.2	15.9	-2.73	15.2	15.3	-0.12
Nene	75	73	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.42	13	-12	25	14.9	15.0	-0.13	15.7	13.8	1.88
Chauncey Billups	72	71	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.46	5	-4	9	15.5	13.0	2.58	15.6	14.1	1.52
J.R. Smith	55	57	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.56	0	1	-1	14.0	16.1	-2.10	15.0	15.6	-0.61
Carmelo Anthony	80	79	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.46	3	-2	5	15.2	13.2	2.05	15.5	14.3	1.14
Johan Petro	26	23	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	-4	9	15.4	14.7	0.72	16.3	14.9	1.32
Arron Afflalo	46	43	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	-4	9	15.6	14.2	1.37	15.6	15.0	0.67
Malik Allen	15	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	6	-11	14.5	15.0	-0.51	12.4	15.8	-3.47
Ty Lawson	6	7	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	8	-15	18.8	14.6	4.20	11.1	15.6	-4.45
Chris Andersen	44	44	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.01	-8	9	-17	14.3	15.4	-1.11	15.1	15.4	-0.36
Joey Graham	24	25	-0.53	1.03	-1.56	-0.09	-15	16	-31	15.0	14.9	0.14	14.8	15.4	-0.68

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	65	68	0.38	-0.88	1.25	0.26	4	-5	9	15.9	13.9	1.94	14.9	14.9	-0.05
Jose Calderon	50	50	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.25	0	-1	1	16.5	13.9	2.65	16.0	13.7	2.22
Marco Belinelli	33	34	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.00	5	-6	11	15.4	15.2	0.15	13.5	15.7	-2.16
Amir Johnson	29	29	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.08	1	-2	3	15.2	15.3	-0.08	13.2	15.6	-2.47
Reggie Evans	11	10	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.02	3	-4	7	14.5	15.4	-0.81	18.0	14.5	3.47
Sonny Weems	51	53	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	0	-1	15.1	15.5	-0.40	15.4	14.3	1.03
Chris Bosh	79	79	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.53	-4	3	-7	15.2	15.6	-0.36	15.3	13.1	2.23
Antoine Wright	65	66	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.54	-6	5	-11	15.6	14.6	1.02	16.2	12.1	4.02
Jarrett Jack	45	46	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.72	-1	0	-1	13.9	16.5	-2.65	13.7	16.0	-2.22
DeMar DeRozan	47	46	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.61	-6	5	-11	14.4	16.1	-1.70	13.3	16.4	-3.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.83,0.85,0.73,0.81,0.72,0.76,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 81, MEM 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.49,0.37,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.85,0.64,0.76,0.42,0	93.0%
SAS 89, POR 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.96,0.9,0.47,0	91.3%
GSW 100, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.89,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.8,0.91,0.93,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.42,0	90.9%