NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	84		Excitement	7.3 [332]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +51.8%
Atlanta Hawks	86		Comeback	2.8 [446]		LVP	JJ Redick (ORL): -16.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.29	0.02	0.27	0.00	16	47%	0.29	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.02	13	62%	0.16	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Matt Barnes	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	8	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	57%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	9	30%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.26,-0.16	-0.07	-0.10	-0.02	11	50%	0.10	5	-0.26	16	69%	0.02
JJ Redick	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	7	31%	-0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.52	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.00	10	52%	0.58	3	-0.06	9	78%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.05	-0.01	9	78%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.01	5	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Teague	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	17	41%	0.07	2	-0.09	7	100%	0.13
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	9	22%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	14	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	11	55%	0.05	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	1.7	32.1	15.8	25.7	2.0	43.4	150.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +48.5%

ATL +5.9%

ORL -14.6%

ATL +4.7%

ATL +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.6	16.2	15.3	92.3	95.6	106.0
season	15.4	16.0		110.1	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.9		106.0	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.6	17.0	14.0	15.8	15.6
ATL	15.0	15.0	18.0	17.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	12	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	1	-4	13.1	16.0	-2.89	17.0	16.1	0.87
Mickael Pietrus	17	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	3	-8	18.5	14.9	3.54	15.3	16.4	-1.12
Marcin Gortat	9	8	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.11	-9	7	-16	16.8	15.5	1.31	11.5	16.7	-5.20
Jameer Nelson	66	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.48	10	-12	22	14.8	17.8	-3.04	17.1	13.9	3.22
Matt Barnes	57	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	2	-6	14.7	17.1	-2.48	16.6	15.7	0.85
Dwight Howard	78	79	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.60	11	-13	24	15.7	14.8	0.87	16.8	12.1	4.72
Vince Carter	72	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.54	8	-10	18	15.3	16.6	-1.25	16.8	14.0	2.75
Jason Williams	25	24	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.04	-12	10	-22	17.8	14.8	3.04	13.9	17.1	-3.22
JJ Redick	40	39	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	2	-6	16.4	15.0	1.39	15.7	16.7	-1.00
Rashard Lewis	79	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.43	-2	0	-2	15.6	15.5	0.11	15.8	19.2	-3.38

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	68	70	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.50	2	0	2	16.1	16.7	-0.59	15.5	16.0	-0.59
Mike Bibby	55	53	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.52	1	1	0	17.4	14.3	3.09	15.5	15.7	-0.11
Al Horford	66	64	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.49	-2	4	-6	17.0	14.2	2.82	15.2	16.6	-1.47
Maurice Evans	38	39	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.12	16	-14	30	13.9	17.9	-3.96	16.5	14.9	1.61
Jamal Crawford	57	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.09	7	-5	12	16.0	16.6	-0.54	16.5	14.1	2.31
Joe Johnson	75	75	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.40	-4	6	-10	16.8	13.6	3.16	15.1	18.1	-3.07
Zaza Pachulia	30	32	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.09	9	-7	16	14.9	16.9	-2.05	16.7	15.0	1.64
Jeff Teague	7	9	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	0	2	13.6	16.5	-2.89	20.0	15.1	4.89
Mario West	2	4	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.13	-5	7	-12	5.0	16.5	-11.49	6.0	16.0	-10.03
Marvin Williams	52	52	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.29	-16	18	-34	16.9	15.3	1.59	14.8	16.6	-1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.79,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.78,0.69,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 84, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.79,0.84,0.84,1	92.9%
MIL 80, NJN 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.94,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.68,1,1	92.7%
TOR 90, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.85,1	92.5%