NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	1.8 [1301]		MVP	Vince Carter (ORL): +8.4%
Chicago Bulls	87		Comeback	1.0 [1051]		LVP	John Salmons (CHI): -5.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.01	10	68%	0.09	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	6	87%	0.07	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.00	-0.05	10	69%	0.09	5	-0.04	6	67%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	7	69%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.00	5	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	11	46%	0.03	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	33%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	8	62%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	14	62%	0.06	5	-0.03	9	78%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	12	59%	0.00	2	-0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	7	21%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Richard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	11	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	5	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	-0.05	7	14%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	11	45%	-0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.00	11	46%	-0.02	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.5	29.6	16.4	24.4	2.5	26.0	130.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +39.5%

ORL +2.8%

ORL +4.8%

ORL +1.8%

ORL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.1	14.7	15.3	108.1	86.1	106.0
season	15.4	14.7		110.1	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.9		103.9	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.5	13.5	15.2	15.4	14.1
CHI	15.2	15.9	16.1	11.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	53	54	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.47	31	-11	42	13.7	14.6	-0.89	15.8	13.4	2.43
Dwight Howard	50	53	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.25	23	-3	26	13.5	14.8	-1.28	16.2	13.0	3.17
Matt Barnes	48	50	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.40	27	-7	34	13.7	14.5	-0.74	15.6	13.8	1.86
Rashard Lewis	57	57	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.17	18	2	16	13.8	14.6	-0.80	15.7	13.4	2.26
Jameer Nelson	45	47	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.20	18	2	16	14.0	14.2	-0.16	16.9	12.8	4.09
Jason Williams	54	54	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.12	2	18	-16	14.2	14.0	0.16	12.8	16.9	-4.09
Ryan Anderson	30	32	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.03	6	14	-8	14.5	14.0	0.51	14.6	14.7	-0.18
JJ Redick	51	51	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.32	-7	27	-34	14.5	13.7	0.74	13.8	15.6	-1.86
Marcin Gortat	49	48	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.16	-3	23	-26	14.8	13.5	1.28	13.0	16.2	-3.17
Mickael Pietrus	46	47	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.39	-11	31	-42	14.6	13.7	0.89	13.4	15.8	-2.43
Brandon Bass	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	24	-28	14.8	14.0	0.82	10.3	15.3	-4.94

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	29	30	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.27	9	-29	38	11.1	16.1	-4.97	15.6	13.4	2.18
Devin Brown	26	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.15	5	-25	30	11.7	15.7	-3.98	15.4	13.6	1.73
Jannero Pargo	48	48	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.23	7	-27	34	12.3	16.8	-4.48	14.4	13.8	0.59
Chris Richard	44	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	-18	16	12.2	16.6	-4.39	15.2	13.2	2.01
Tyrus Thomas	76	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.13	-5	-15	10	13.6	18.0	-4.46	14.7	12.4	2.24
Taj Gibson	34	34	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.26	-19	-1	-18	17.9	13.0	4.87	12.5	15.0	-2.50
Derrick Rose	26	26	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.35	-24	4	-28	15.2	14.5	0.69	12.5	14.7	-2.18
Luol Deng	70	66	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.17	-20	0	-20	15.8	12.2	3.55	14.0	14.2	-0.20
Brad Miller	52	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.13	-19	-1	-18	16.6	12.7	3.86	13.1	15.2	-2.12
John Salmons	67	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.32	-26	6	-32	16.0	12.0	4.00	13.6	15.1	-1.46
Kirk Hinrich	54	52	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.31	-27	7	-34	16.5	12.6	3.94	13.6	14.7	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 99, ATL 76	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.1%
CHI 108, NJN 87	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.0%
DET 113, NYK 86	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.9%