NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	5.9 [617]		MVP	Daequan Cook (MIA): +19.1%
Atlanta Hawks	76		Comeback	1.9 [203]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -28.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.14	0.05	12	71%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	5	91%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.11	-0.00	13	68%	0.22	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.02	9	78%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0.04	15	49%	-0.01	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.04
Quentin Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	11	30%	-0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.01	-0.07	4	40%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	14	50%	0.03	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.05
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	11	48%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	11	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	7	61%	0.13	6	-0.15	4	75%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.12	-0.12	0.04	21	38%	-0.16	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.4	33.2	16.4	26.2	2.0	28.1	134.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.5%

ATL -14.6%

MIA +8.8%

MIA +8.1%

ATL -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	18.3	16.7	15.3	116.0	90.5	106.0
season	16.2	16.0		104.4	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.4		106.0	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.6	19.8	15.6	19.5	18.3
ATL	15.0	17.2	17.1	17.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	45	46	0.84	-0.34	1.18	-0.10	32	-14	46	18.8	17.7	1.06	18.6	14.3	4.37
Daequan Cook	33	33	0.73	-0.23	0.96	-0.09	28	-10	38	20.2	16.9	3.30	18.8	15.3	3.51
Udonis Haslem	44	46	0.70	-0.20	0.89	-0.12	28	-10	38	19.6	16.7	2.91	17.8	15.2	2.59
Carlos Arroyo	22	22	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	4	10	20.5	17.4	3.10	18.9	15.9	3.05
Jermaine O'Neal	62	63	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.01	11	7	4	18.3	18.2	0.10	16.8	16.1	0.75
Joel Anthony	19	21	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.04	7	11	-4	18.2	18.3	-0.10	16.1	16.8	-0.75
Dwyane Wade	61	65	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.15	5	13	-8	17.2	21.4	-4.20	16.0	18.9	-2.96
Quentin Richardson	31	32	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.08	-9	27	-36	16.8	19.2	-2.34	15.2	17.5	-2.27
Rafer Alston	46	48	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.07	-11	29	-40	17.2	19.7	-2.57	15.1	18.8	-3.72
Michael Beasley	42	44	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	0.09	-15	33	-48	17.5	19.2	-1.73	14.4	19.1	-4.76

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario West	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-16	14	5.5	16.9	-11.43	28.0	18.2	9.84
Marvin Williams	63	62	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	-13	8	15.8	19.2	-3.44	17.7	20.3	-2.59
Josh Smith	66	63	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-15	12	15.6	20.6	-4.96	17.4	21.3	-3.92
Mike Bibby	64	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-14	10	15.9	19.0	-3.08	17.3	21.7	-4.42
Jason Collins	5	6	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	-8	-2	21.6	16.3	5.26	22.5	17.9	4.55
Al Horford	79	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	-10	2	16.3	21.6	-5.26	17.9	22.5	-4.55
Jeff Teague	20	18	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	-4	-10	19.0	15.9	3.08	21.7	17.3	4.42
Joe Smith	18	18	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.05	-15	-3	-12	20.6	15.6	4.96	21.3	17.4	3.92
Maurice Evans	26	24	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	-3	-12	18.7	15.7	2.95	20.7	17.2	3.50
Joe Johnson	77	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.05	-14	-4	-10	17.0	13.3	3.68	17.9	23.5	-5.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.48,0.32,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 77, ATL 70	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.02,0	93.1%
DET 91, LAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.23,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.04,0,0	92.7%
SAS 91, UTA 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.04,0	92.7%