NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	3.9 [1020]		MVP	Carlos Delfino (MIL): +7.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	1.1 [978]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -11.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.00	0.04	10	73%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	8	67%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	0.06	11	58%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	8	12%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	20	40%	-0.04	4	-0.07	12	75%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	6	69%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.01	0.03	14	69%	0.09	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	-0.04	11	61%	0.10	4	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	13	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	8	75%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	67%	0.05	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.8	30.1	15.7	26.3	2.4	33.6	132.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +35.5%

MIL +8.5%

MIA -2.6%

MIL +5.2%

MIL +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.3	92.3	102.2	106.0
season	16.2	15.5		104.4	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		101.8	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.2	16.0	14.2	14.7	15.5
MIL	15.5	14.6	17.7	15.3	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	18	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-9	7	14.6	15.8	-1.23	16.6	15.6	0.98
Carlos Arroyo	25	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.09	-2	-9	7	16.3	15.2	1.08	15.7	15.8	-0.02
Daequan Cook	46	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-11	11	14.7	16.4	-1.75	15.0	16.6	-1.60
Jermaine O'Neal	60	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-14	17	16.1	14.5	1.55	16.0	15.3	0.69
Quentin Richardson	70	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-10	9	15.1	16.9	-1.78	16.1	14.8	1.24
Joel Anthony	26	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.09	-11	0	-11	16.9	15.0	1.94	15.2	16.0	-0.81
Dorell Wright	40	42	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	-6	-5	-1	15.6	15.5	0.11	15.2	16.3	-1.09
Dwyane Wade	57	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	-3	-5	15.6	15.4	0.30	16.2	14.9	1.28
Rafer Alston	54	56	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	1	-13	15.8	15.2	0.63	15.9	15.5	0.46
Udonis Haslem	59	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.04	-16	5	-21	15.1	16.3	-1.15	15.6	16.0	-0.41

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakim Warrick	57	55	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.08	13	-2	15	15.3	16.4	-1.11	15.0	16.4	-1.41
Andrew Bogut	64	64	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.04	14	-3	17	16.0	15.2	0.81	15.2	16.2	-0.97
Brandon Jennings	73	70	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.09	12	-1	13	15.9	15.3	0.59	15.1	17.0	-1.96
Jerry Stackhouse	41	40	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.01	13	-2	15	16.0	15.6	0.42	16.2	15.0	1.22
Charlie Bell	65	64	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	4	3	15.7	16.0	-0.34	15.2	16.3	-1.08
Carlos Delfino	77	75	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.20	2	9	-7	16.0	14.4	1.60	15.7	14.8	0.88
Luke Ridnour	20	21	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	12	-13	15.3	15.9	-0.59	17.0	15.1	1.96
Kurt Thomas	20	20	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	11	-11	15.3	15.9	-0.59	17.1	15.1	2.00
Ersan Ilyasova	30	28	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	13	-15	16.3	15.5	0.74	16.0	15.3	0.67
Jodie Meeks	3	3	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	11	-11	7.7	16.0	-8.37	9.3	15.7	-6.42
Luc Mbah a Moute	15	15	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	14	-17	15.9	15.7	0.20	15.9	15.5	0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.85,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 87, PHX 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
GSW 94, IND 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1	96.1%
VAN 80, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%