NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	6.5 [478]		MVP	Aaron Brooks (HOU): +17.6%
Houston Rockets	92		Comeback	4.1 [223]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): -26.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.04	0.12	-0.01	16	55%	0.22	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.01
Nene	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.02	7	78%	0.23	5	-0.11	9	67%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	7	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	12	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	87%	0.05	1	-0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	16	52%	0.13	5	-0.10	8	75%	-0.00
Joey Graham	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	6	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.15	-0.11	-0.00	7	12%	-0.15	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.18	0.18	0.22	0.05	0.09	11	92%	0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	21	43%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
David Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	6	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	16	50%	0.06	4	-0.08	8	75%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	9	42%	-0.03	4	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	7	47%	-0.01	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	7	14%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	2.4	33.6	16.5	28.3	2.7	31.3	144.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.4%

DEN +14.8%

DEN +11.8%

HOU -0.6%

HOU -7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.2	15.3	15.3	99.0	94.8	106.0
season	14.4	15.0		110.3	106.0
opponent	15.1	15.5		106.1	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	12.0	14.3	16.5	14.2
HOU	13.9	15.7	16.3	15.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	69	71	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.35	17	-12	29	14.9	12.4	2.49	15.6	14.7	0.94
J.R. Smith	79	76	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.27	18	-13	31	13.5	17.1	-3.60	15.8	13.8	1.95
Ty Lawson	51	48	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.24	11	-6	17	13.4	15.1	-1.73	15.3	15.4	-0.14
Chauncey Billups	77	80	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.33	7	-2	9	14.7	12.4	2.32	15.4	15.2	0.13
Chris Andersen	52	50	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	-9	23	13.4	15.1	-1.75	16.0	14.7	1.28
Joey Graham	36	37	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.09	-5	10	-15	15.7	13.4	2.31	15.5	15.2	0.32
Kenyon Martin	74	72	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	0.21	-18	23	-41	14.2	14.1	0.16	14.8	16.9	-2.07
Arron Afflalo	52	51	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	0.21	-19	24	-43	14.1	14.3	-0.19	14.4	16.4	-2.00

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luis Scola	80	80	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.26	14	-19	33	15.1	16.3	-1.16	14.1	14.6	-0.50
David Andersen	16	16	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.13	-3	-2	-1	18.0	14.8	3.19	14.6	14.1	0.43
Trevor Ariza	80	80	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.48	10	-15	25	14.9	17.4	-2.51	13.9	15.7	-1.79
Chase Budinger	49	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	3	-11	16.1	14.6	1.50	13.8	14.7	-0.91
Kyle Lowry	77	77	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-2	-1	14.8	17.3	-2.47	13.3	17.6	-4.35
Shane Battier	49	50	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-2	-1	16.0	14.7	1.29	14.5	13.9	0.64
Charles Hayes	53	51	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.11	-10	5	-15	15.9	14.6	1.29	14.8	13.6	1.25
Aaron Brooks	38	40	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	4	-13	15.1	15.5	-0.47	16.4	12.7	3.75
Carl Landry	43	46	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.41	-13	8	-21	14.4	16.1	-1.66	13.9	14.5	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.43,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.41,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.03,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 95, LAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.53,0.31,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0	91.8%
CLE 109, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.77,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.63,0.41,0.19,0.05,0.07,0.07,0,0.02,0	91.0%
UTA 82, HOU 74	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.01,0	90.8%