NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	84		Excitement	2.5 [1242]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +14.9%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	1.3 [1078]		LVP	Kevin Martin (SAC): -14.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Spencer Hawes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	12	54%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	40%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Donte Greene	0.00	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	-0.00	-0.08	9	35%	0.02	2	-0.01	5	60%	-0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	71%	0.00	1	0.00	3	33%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Omri Casspi	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	0.00	0.06	10	57%	-0.03	1	0.00	3	33%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	58%	0.01	3	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.17	-0.01	-0.04	7	26%	-0.03	5	-0.11	5	60%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.19	0.00	0.05	15	73%	0.15	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	-0.05	8	59%	0.06	2	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	10	48%	0.01	1	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	3	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	15	60%	0.03	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	11	54%	0.01	3	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.06	3	87%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	1.0	33.2	16.5	28.9	1.8	27.4	137.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +23.5%

MIA +4.2%

MIA +9.1%

MIA +11.7%

MIA +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIA	NBA	SAC	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	16.7	15.3	94.4	130.7	106.0
season	15.2	16.2		103.7	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.0		102.8	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	17.3	15.9	16.3	14.0	15.9
MIA	17.0	15.4	17.2	17.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sergio Rodriguez	17	16	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-33	35	13.6	16.4	-2.73	16.2	16.8	-0.62
Hilton Armstrong	17	16	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-33	35	13.6	16.4	-2.73	16.2	16.8	-0.62
Andres Nocioni	14	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-32	33	15.1	16.0	-0.84	19.5	16.2	3.34
Beno Udrih	23	25	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-27	23	14.5	16.3	-1.80	18.1	16.1	1.94
Omri Casspi	52	50	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.21	-10	-21	11	14.6	17.6	-3.07	17.6	15.5	2.05
Spencer Hawes	50	48	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.20	-11	-20	9	14.7	17.3	-2.59	17.8	15.3	2.51
Jon Brockman	41	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.40	-20	-11	-9	17.0	14.9	2.17	17.8	15.7	2.04
Ime Udoka	31	29	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.29	-21	-10	-11	16.7	15.4	1.31	16.2	16.9	-0.67
Jason Thompson	41	42	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.24	-22	-9	-13	17.4	14.6	2.80	15.3	18.0	-2.74
Kevin Martin	44	45	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.11	-18	-13	-5	17.1	14.7	2.40	15.5	17.9	-2.42
Donte Greene	57	56	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.35	-27	-4	-23	16.1	15.5	0.60	16.0	18.0	-2.00
Tyreke Evans	58	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.34	-27	-4	-23	16.5	14.7	1.81	16.1	17.8	-1.72

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Beasley	65	65	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.42	33	-2	35	16.0	18.8	-2.83	16.6	14.0	2.60
Quentin Richardson	47	46	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.33	29	2	27	14.9	18.7	-3.82	17.3	14.3	2.91
Dwyane Wade	55	55	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.31	27	4	23	15.9	17.9	-1.99	16.5	14.8	1.71
Jermaine O'Neal	44	42	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.31	24	7	17	16.2	17.2	-1.07	18.3	13.7	4.56
Dorell Wright	42	43	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.11	12	19	-7	17.1	16.3	0.72	15.2	16.5	-1.34
Rafer Alston	42	43	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.25	16	15	1	17.1	16.3	0.77	16.8	15.0	1.81
Joel Anthony	34	37	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.01	4	27	-23	18.0	15.9	2.08	13.6	17.5	-3.87
Mario Chalmers	33	34	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.10	4	27	-23	17.9	15.9	1.99	14.8	16.5	-1.71
Jamaal Magloire	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	31	-31	16.4	16.7	-0.31	13.2	16.3	-3.13
Carlos Arroyo	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	30	-29	17.5	16.6	0.93	12.6	16.4	-3.78
James Jones	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	30	-29	17.5	16.6	0.93	12.6	16.4	-3.78
Udonis Haslem	40	42	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.15	4	27	-23	18.3	15.4	2.90	15.3	16.3	-1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 80, SAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
NOK 79, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
NOP 93, SAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.68,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%