NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	115		Excitement	3.7 [1059]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +18.3%
Houston Rockets	106		Comeback	2.2 [255]		LVP	Carl Landry (HOU): -11.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.21	0.02	0.05	24	67%	0.22	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0.10	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.00	-0.03	10	71%	0.14	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.00	0.02	8	75%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	13	43%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	15	53%	0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.01	-0.00	9	85%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	3	85%	0.07	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.02
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.00	0.04	14	57%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	3	75%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
David Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.00	0.07	6	86%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	14	47%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	12	50%	-0.00	4	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	8	28%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	30.2	15.8	28.1	2.7	31.0	131.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.3%

HOU -0.6%

MIA +2.4%

MIA +17.5%

MIA +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	16.4	14.2	15.3	122.3	112.8	106.0
season	16.2	15.0		104.4	106.0
opponent	15.1	15.4		106.1	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.4	16.0	14.1	19.3	16.4
HOU	14.9	14.0	15.3	12.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	82	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-3	15	16.0	19.7	-3.80	14.2	14.4	-0.25
Dorell Wright	47	47	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	-5	19	17.0	15.9	1.04	13.5	14.9	-1.47
Jermaine O'Neal	62	60	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-2	13	16.4	16.6	-0.24	14.9	12.9	1.98
Mario Chalmers	29	28	0.28	0.21	0.07	-0.01	10	-1	11	16.5	16.4	0.07	13.2	14.6	-1.36
Michael Beasley	52	51	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.02	8	1	7	16.2	16.7	-0.42	15.1	13.2	1.92
Rafer Alston	65	66	0.21	0.28	-0.07	0.24	-1	10	-11	16.4	16.5	-0.07	14.6	13.2	1.36
Udonis Haslem	54	56	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.25	-2	11	-13	17.4	15.2	2.15	13.3	15.6	-2.31
Joel Anthony	32	33	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.12	-2	11	-13	16.6	16.4	0.24	13.2	14.7	-1.53
Quentin Richardson	47	47	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.20	-5	14	-19	15.9	17.0	-1.04	14.9	13.5	1.47

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	40	41	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-9	9	15.2	13.4	1.82	15.4	17.3	-1.90
Trevor Ariza	69	70	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.30	7	-16	23	14.3	14.0	0.22	16.0	17.6	-1.60
David Andersen	34	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-8	7	12.7	15.0	-2.30	18.6	15.2	3.42
Aaron Brooks	68	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-10	11	14.7	12.8	1.87	16.9	15.1	1.73
Kyle Lowry	34	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	2	-13	12.2	15.3	-3.17	17.3	16.0	1.28
Luis Scola	68	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.28	-1	-8	7	14.7	12.8	1.87	15.6	18.8	-3.17
Chase Budinger	44	41	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.02	-15	6	-21	13.7	14.7	-1.02	17.0	16.0	0.91
Carl Landry	46	44	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.04	-16	7	-23	13.6	14.8	-1.16	17.1	15.9	1.19
Shane Battier	67	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.18	-9	0	-9	15.0	12.2	2.78	15.7	18.3	-2.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.18,0.16,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 114, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.27,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
BOS 107, PHI 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
CHI 151, MIL 135	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%