NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	7.2 [350]		MVP	JJ Redick (ORL): +24.5%
Indiana Pacers	97		Comeback	1.1 [216]		LVP	Vince Carter (ORL): -26.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24	0.10	0.13	-0.02	7	72%	0.24	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.02	9	76%	0.11	2	-0.06	3	67%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	62%	0.09	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Marcin Gortat	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.06	15	53%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	22%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Jason Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	37%	0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.02	0.01	6	46%	-0.03	5	-0.11	12	58%	-0.11
Ryan Anderson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.20	-0.08	-0.01	15	19%	-0.19	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.10	-0.01	11	55%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	15	49%	0.06	0	0.00	7	86%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	60%	0.10	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.01	0.05	19	55%	0.05	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.07,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	13	38%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	46%	0.04	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	58%	0.03	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	26.5	16.3	26.5	2.5	43.5	143.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +22.1%

IND +12.5%

ORL -8.3%

IND +24.0%

ORL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	14.8	14.7	15.3	93.8	98.0	106.0
season	15.4	14.2		110.1	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.9		105.3	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.1	15.5	13.5	13.4	14.8
IND	14.3	15.2	15.3	14.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	11	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-7	7	17.1	14.5	2.60	10.5	15.3	-4.73
Matt Barnes	45	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.08	-1	-6	5	14.5	15.1	-0.61	14.6	14.9	-0.24
Mickael Pietrus	44	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-7	7	14.7	14.8	-0.12	14.7	14.8	-0.05
Jameer Nelson	57	61	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-7	7	15.9	13.2	2.67	15.0	14.3	0.79
Dwight Howard	55	59	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.11	-3	-4	1	14.5	15.2	-0.79	15.5	13.7	1.76
Marcin Gortat	37	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-7	7	14.5	14.9	-0.41	14.4	14.9	-0.48
JJ Redick	62	63	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.30	1	-8	9	13.9	16.4	-2.55	13.3	17.2	-3.93
Ryan Anderson	26	26	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-3	-1	12.5	15.6	-3.14	13.4	15.2	-1.85
Jason Williams	39	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	0	-7	13.2	15.9	-2.67	14.3	15.0	-0.79
Rashard Lewis	63	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	0	-7	15.8	12.9	2.87	15.5	13.2	2.30
Vince Carter	41	44	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.03	-14	7	-21	16.6	13.5	3.13	17.0	13.0	3.97

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roy Hibbert	66	64	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.23	12	-5	17	16.6	11.1	5.44	15.8	12.7	3.06
Dahntay Jones	70	68	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	0	7	15.1	13.9	1.25	15.3	13.6	1.72
Mike Dunleavy	68	67	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.11	10	-3	13	14.7	14.8	-0.04	15.3	13.6	1.73
Brandon Rush	69	68	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	3	1	14.3	15.7	-1.41	13.9	17.0	-3.07
Earl Watson	69	66	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.34	0	7	-7	15.4	13.2	2.27	15.3	13.6	1.68
Luther Head	66	62	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	10	-13	14.5	15.2	-0.65	14.7	14.9	-0.23
A.J. Price	30	30	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.05	7	0	7	13.2	15.4	-2.27	13.6	15.3	-1.68
Josh McRoberts	29	28	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	7	-7	13.9	15.1	-1.25	13.6	15.3	-1.72
Solomon Jones	28	27	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.02	-2	9	-11	12.1	15.8	-3.73	13.5	15.3	-1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.74,0.57,0.66,0.75,0.63,0.74,0.88,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 95, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
ORL 89, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	93.2%
LAL 106, PHX 115	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.73,0.78,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1	93.2%