NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	96		Excitement	11.4 [21]		MVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): +46.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	4.7 [156]		LVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): -63.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyreke Evans	0.47	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,0.47	-0.04	0.50	-0.01	19	53%	0.72	6	-0.25	7	71%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0.40	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,0.03,0.14,0.4	0.03	0.37	-0.00	16	55%	0.48	3	-0.08	8	75%	0.03
Spencer Hawes	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.18	0.04	0.14	0.00	10	54%	0.18	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Omri Casspi	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.06	0.01	6	69%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Kenny Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.06	0.00	11	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Ime Udoka	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	42%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	21%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.35	0.35	-0.01	0.34	-0.02	14	50%	0.39	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.07	0.19	-0.00	14	61%	0.28	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09,0.17	0.17	0.03	0.14	0.00	11	54%	0.19	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.19
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.01	5	100%	0.16	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.03
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.13	0.00	6	21%	-0.18	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.63	-0.63	-0.12	-0.52	-0.00	20	31%	-0.60	1	-0.03	8	37%	-0.30

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	26.0	15.7	27.4	2.5	39.5	135.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +116.4%

SAC +3.6%

MIL -47.4%

MIL -28.4%

SAC +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIL	NBA	SAC	MIL	NBA
this game	15.1	15.9	15.3	103.2	102.2	106.0
season	15.2	15.5		103.7	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.0		101.8	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.4	14.8	15.2	15.9	15.1
MIL	15.6	15.2	14.8	18.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donte Greene	27	27	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	-2	5	14.9	15.1	-0.23	14.7	16.4	-1.65
Ime Udoka	36	36	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.34	4	-3	7	14.5	15.4	-0.95	14.7	16.7	-2.04
Jason Thompson	75	76	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	1	-1	15.0	15.4	-0.42	16.2	14.6	1.55
Omri Casspi	58	59	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.46	-2	3	-5	15.6	14.2	1.32	16.6	14.7	1.90
Beno Udrih	69	68	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.19	7	-6	13	14.6	16.5	-1.95	15.9	15.9	0.05
Tyreke Evans	70	71	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.44	-2	3	-5	14.8	15.8	-0.97	16.1	15.3	0.84
Andres Nocioni	49	48	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.18	0	1	-1	15.7	14.3	1.35	15.3	16.5	-1.20
Kenny Thomas	27	28	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	3	-5	15.6	14.8	0.76	15.8	16.0	-0.13
Spencer Hawes	54	52	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.06	-3	4	-7	15.2	14.8	0.36	16.5	15.2	1.29

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	66	67	0.37	-0.87	1.23	0.13	8	-9	17	16.4	14.7	1.76	15.4	14.2	1.14
Jodie Meeks	16	15	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.06	9	-10	19	15.6	16.0	-0.35	16.7	14.7	2.00
Michael Redd	42	44	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	6	-13	16.5	15.5	0.98	14.4	15.7	-1.31
Ersan Ilyasova	56	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.34	5	-6	11	15.4	16.7	-1.31	15.2	14.8	0.36
Luke Ridnour	26	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	6	-13	15.2	16.2	-0.95	14.2	15.4	-1.14
Hakim Warrick	30	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.02	-7	6	-13	15.8	16.0	-0.22	14.8	15.2	-0.43
Andrew Bogut	67	66	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.48	8	-9	17	16.2	15.2	0.95	15.2	14.6	0.60
Kurt Thomas	26	27	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	8	-17	15.2	16.2	-0.95	14.6	15.2	-0.60
Luc Mbah a Moute	69	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.67	7	-8	15	15.9	16.0	-0.12	15.2	14.7	0.51
Carlos Delfino	57	56	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.47	-5	4	-9	16.6	14.8	1.85	15.7	14.1	1.66
Charlie Bell	10	10	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.53	-7	6	-13	12.0	16.4	-4.39	11.0	15.5	-4.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.45,0.78,0.55,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 91, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.66,0.57,0.58,0	91.9%
NYK 78, MIA 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.46,0.47,0.63,0.45,0.69,0	91.6%
MIN 112, HOU 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.71,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.53,0.63,0.45,0.27,0	91.5%