NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	86		Excitement	2.3 [1267]		MVP	Mickael Pietrus (ORL): +8.6%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.2 [464]		LVP	Vince Carter (ORL): -5.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.00	0.04	6	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.10	0.00	0.09	9	68%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	9	45%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Brandon Bass	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	55%	0.00	1	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Jason Williams	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0.03	11	55%	0.02	3	-0.05	9	56%	-0.03
Matt Barnes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.15	0.00	-0.10	8	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	10	45%	-0.02	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.01	0.04	17	60%	0.08	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.03
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	9	61%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.00	-0.08	6	50%	0.05	2	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	15	58%	0.04	2	0.00	8	75%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	9	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	53%	0.01	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.0	32.8	18.7	25.8	3.0	27.2	136.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +23.0%

MIA +2.2%

MIA +8.0%

MIA +15.0%

MIA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.7	18.0	15.3	93.5	115.6	106.0
season	15.4	16.2		110.1	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.9		102.8	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.9	12.4	14.7	12.1	13.7
MIA	17.6	18.9	16.0	19.5	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	24	22	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.32	11	-29	40	12.1	14.3	-2.23	19.5	17.5	2.09
Marcin Gortat	24	22	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.32	11	-29	40	12.1	14.3	-2.23	19.5	17.5	2.09
Ryan Anderson	13	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.09	3	-21	24	12.2	14.0	-1.74	19.3	17.7	1.56
JJ Redick	50	50	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.16	3	-21	24	12.8	14.8	-1.95	18.3	17.6	0.71
Anthony Johnson	47	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-15	12	13.1	14.4	-1.27	17.7	18.3	-0.55
Matt Barnes	42	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.26	2	-20	22	12.8	14.5	-1.73	18.5	17.5	0.96
Mickael Pietrus	34	33	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	-4	-10	15.0	13.0	2.06	18.5	17.7	0.77
Jason Williams	45	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.09	-15	-3	-12	14.4	13.1	1.27	18.3	17.7	0.55
Rashard Lewis	58	57	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.38	-27	9	-36	14.4	12.6	1.85	17.0	19.6	-2.54
Vince Carter	55	54	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.45	-32	14	-46	14.8	12.1	2.66	17.0	19.4	-2.46
Dwight Howard	68	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.35	-29	11	-40	14.3	12.1	2.23	17.5	19.5	-2.09

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	55	55	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.45	32	-14	46	17.0	19.5	-2.44	14.7	12.2	2.48
Quentin Richardson	38	39	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	3	12	18.7	17.4	1.29	14.8	12.9	1.90
Jermaine O'Neal	32	34	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.18	18	0	18	18.2	17.8	0.34	14.5	13.3	1.22
Michael Beasley	63	64	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	14	-10	19.1	15.3	3.76	13.6	13.9	-0.29
Carlos Arroyo	49	47	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	10	-2	18.6	17.3	1.28	14.6	12.9	1.69
Mario Chalmers	41	45	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.06	10	8	2	17.3	18.6	-1.28	12.9	14.6	-1.69
Joel Anthony	50	51	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	14	-10	17.4	18.7	-1.32	13.3	14.3	-1.06
Udonis Haslem	58	61	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.23	-1	19	-20	18.0	17.9	0.05	12.4	16.3	-3.91
Dorell Wright	51	53	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	15	-12	17.4	18.7	-1.33	13.0	14.7	-1.72
Daequan Cook	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	17	-16	14.2	18.2	-3.99	20.5	13.4	7.08
Jamaal Magloire	8	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	22	-26	20.7	17.7	3.05	13.4	13.8	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 116, SAS 147	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
BKN 101, SAS 130	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.58,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
GSW 89, SEA 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%