NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	5.5 [694]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (SAS): +13.3%
Golden State Warriors	91		Comeback	1.8 [800]		LVP	Vladimir Radmanovic (GSW): -20.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.02	14	59%	0.15	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.02	7	57%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.01	5	93%	0.16	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
George Hill	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.06	0.01	4	83%	0.14	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.04	22	54%	0.08	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.00
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Hairston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.03	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.03	-0.02	31	52%	0.15	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	10	78%	0.15	4	-0.11	7	71%	-0.00
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	10	42%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Devean George	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	13	42%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	11	36%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.17	-0.04	-0.00	8	6%	-0.16	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	30.5	15.5	30.2	1.8	26.6	130.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +46.4%

SAS +5.7%

SAS +17.5%

GSW -22.9%

SAS +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	15.6	13.2	15.3	103.0	91.0	106.0
season	15.9	13.4		108.2	106.5
opponent	14.8	15.1		110.0	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.7	15.2	14.6	19.3	15.6
GSW	12.0	14.2	14.2	12.5	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	70	68	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.05	14	-2	16	16.7	13.1	3.57	14.0	11.5	2.45
Tony Parker	72	71	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-3	18	16.0	14.5	1.58	13.7	12.0	1.69
Tim Duncan	62	64	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	0	12	16.4	14.4	1.99	13.7	12.2	1.48
Keith Bogans	46	47	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.04	11	1	10	15.7	15.5	0.14	14.5	12.1	2.39
Antonio McDyess	36	35	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.06	13	-1	14	15.2	15.8	-0.63	14.4	12.6	1.85
Manu Ginobili	52	53	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.10	5	7	-2	14.4	16.9	-2.41	12.1	14.5	-2.43
Roger Mason Jr.	45	46	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.12	-1	13	-14	16.0	15.3	0.73	12.9	13.5	-0.57
George Hill	49	48	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.16	-3	15	-18	16.4	14.8	1.58	12.3	14.0	-1.71
DeJuan Blair	36	35	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	14	-16	14.5	16.2	-1.76	12.5	13.6	-1.14
Malik Hairston	3	3	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	11	-10	5.0	15.9	-10.93	7.7	13.4	-5.70
Matt Bonner	29	30	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.14	-5	17	-22	13.3	16.5	-3.27	11.1	14.1	-3.05

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Hunter	5	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-10	8	14.4	13.1	1.26	18.8	15.4	3.37
Devean George	5	5	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-11	10	17.2	13.0	4.21	13.6	15.7	-2.11
Vladimir Radmanovic	54	54	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-12	12	12.9	13.5	-0.60	14.9	16.4	-1.55
Corey Maggette	82	80	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-7	2	13.0	14.2	-1.25	15.7	15.2	0.50
Anthony Morrow	65	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-7	2	13.8	12.2	1.58	16.3	14.3	2.02
Stephen Curry	53	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	0	-12	12.6	13.9	-1.27	14.8	16.6	-1.86
CJ Watson	93	92	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	-3	-6	13.4	10.9	2.52	15.3	18.7	-3.42
Anthony Randolph	50	52	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	0	-12	12.9	13.5	-0.64	16.4	14.7	1.63
Monta Ellis	93	93	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	2	-16	13.2	12.9	0.37	15.7	14.4	1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.08,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.26,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 93, CLE 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.46,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.03,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0	94.7%
BKN 98, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
IND 89, ATL 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.2,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.01,0	94.2%