NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	95		Excitement	3.8 [1027]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +16.8%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	1.4 [1019]		LVP	Yakhouba Diawara (MIA): -11.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.02	0.02	13	76%	0.22	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.03
Sonny Weems	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.07	5	60%	0.01	4	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	-0.04	11	41%	0.02	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.02
Amir Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Andrea Bargnani	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.02	13	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Banks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.08	-0.00	0.10	5	90%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	9	22%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	3	60%	0.02	5	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Marco Belinelli	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.01	-0.01	19	64%	0.17	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	6	71%	0.10	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	80%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	0.00	0.08	11	70%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	4	64%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	6	43%	0.04	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	19	47%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.04	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.02	5	20%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	0.6	35.8	14.7	28.3	1.6	24.5	134.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.4%

TOR -1.3%

MIA +7.0%

MIA +0.3%

MIA +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	15.7	15.3	97.9	118.6	106.0
season	15.0	16.2		109.6	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		102.8	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.1	15.0	13.9	13.0	14.0
MIA	15.9	13.8	16.1	17.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	15	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-22	24	12.8	14.2	-1.42	16.9	15.5	1.42
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	19	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-20	20	13.4	14.1	-0.72	15.5	15.7	-0.21
Sonny Weems	50	49	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-17	14	13.5	14.6	-1.07	16.6	14.8	1.74
Marcus Banks	28	29	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.01	-5	-15	10	13.0	14.4	-1.41	16.8	15.2	1.57
Marco Belinelli	25	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	-15	10	14.2	13.9	0.27	17.6	14.9	2.64
Amir Johnson	30	30	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	-9	-2	13.5	14.2	-0.72	17.5	14.9	2.57
DeMar DeRozan	58	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	-6	-8	14.4	13.4	0.99	14.6	17.3	-2.66
Andrea Bargnani	64	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.08	-14	-6	-8	14.4	13.2	1.29	15.0	16.9	-1.93
Chris Bosh	66	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.14	-17	-3	-14	14.2	13.5	0.76	15.3	16.5	-1.20
Jarrett Jack	67	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	-3	-14	14.5	12.8	1.74	14.9	17.2	-2.33
Hedo Turkoglu	63	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.01	-16	-4	-12	13.8	14.3	-0.45	15.5	16.1	-0.66

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Beasley	74	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.07	18	2	16	15.3	17.0	-1.77	14.0	13.9	0.17
Jermaine O'Neal	51	51	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	8	4	14.2	17.4	-3.19	14.5	13.4	1.16
Dwyane Wade	61	60	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.00	12	8	4	14.5	17.6	-3.10	14.7	12.9	1.79
Mario Chalmers	55	54	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.15	16	4	12	16.2	15.0	1.13	13.7	14.4	-0.71
Dorell Wright	57	55	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.23	17	3	14	15.6	15.7	-0.10	13.9	14.2	-0.34
Yakhouba Diawara	40	42	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	17	-14	15.7	15.6	0.10	14.2	13.9	0.34
Udonis Haslem	47	47	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.17	12	8	4	17.1	14.3	2.83	14.1	13.9	0.12
Carlos Arroyo	42	43	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	16	-12	15.0	16.2	-1.13	14.4	13.7	0.71
Daequan Cook	36	37	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.09	8	12	-4	17.6	14.5	3.10	12.9	14.7	-1.79
Joel Anthony	22	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	22	-24	17.5	15.2	2.34	12.5	14.5	-2.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.76,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
TOR 62, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
PHI 76, SEA 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%