NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	95		Excitement	6.3 [534]		MVP	Charlie Villanueva (DET): +25.3%
Detroit Pistons	104		Comeback	3.6 [608]		LVP	Anthony Morrow (GSW): -18.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.04	-0.03	20	60%	0.25	1	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Corey Maggette	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	13	68%	0.16	4	-0.11	8	87%	0.01
Stephen Curry	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.04	0.05	10	73%	0.14	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.03
CJ Watson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0	0.04	-0.02	0.03	11	57%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mikki Moore	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Hunter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	11	29%	-0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.11	-0.01	14	71%	0.29	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.08
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.07	0.00	15	49%	0.09	3	-0.06	7	71%	-0.01
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	57%	0.03	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.04
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DaJuan Summers	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	0.06	18	63%	0.15	7	-0.20	10	90%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	7	56%	0.03	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.6	36.2	17.8	31.0	2.5	35.5	154.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +28.6%

DET +6.2%

DET +15.8%

GSW -5.7%

DET +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DET	NBA	GSW	DET	NBA
this game	13.6	15.6	15.3	96.9	105.1	106.0
season	13.4	16.8		106.5	104.0
opponent	15.2	14.8		109.8	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.1	14.0	14.6	11.1	13.6
DET	15.5	16.6	15.4	15.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Hunter	16	18	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-13	17	13.5	13.6	-0.15	16.1	15.5	0.62
Mikki Moore	31	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-6	3	14.4	13.3	1.07	15.7	15.6	0.10
Vladimir Radmanovic	64	63	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.17	1	-10	11	14.3	12.4	1.85	15.8	15.2	0.56
Anthony Randolph	30	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-7	5	12.7	14.0	-1.38	15.2	15.8	-0.57
Anthony Morrow	36	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-1	-7	14.2	13.3	0.90	14.8	16.1	-1.24
CJ Watson	73	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-5	1	13.8	13.0	0.78	15.9	14.8	1.08
Stephen Curry	80	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.17	-11	2	-13	13.1	16.1	-3.05	15.5	15.8	-0.31
Monta Ellis	98	99	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	13.6	0.0	13.62	15.6	0.0	15.61
Corey Maggette	62	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	4	-17	13.2	14.3	-1.04	15.6	15.6	0.06

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	77	77	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.04	17	-8	25	15.5	16.0	-0.45	13.5	14.2	-0.72
Chucky Atkins	70	67	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	1	7	15.6	15.7	-0.07	13.9	13.1	0.72
Charlie Villanueva	70	68	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	4	1	15.6	15.5	0.13	13.4	14.2	-0.83
Rodney Stuckey	78	77	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	-2	13	15.4	16.2	-0.74	13.4	14.3	-0.84
Jason Maxiell	45	46	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	1	7	15.5	15.7	-0.13	13.5	13.7	-0.27
Ben Wallace	56	56	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.11	6	3	3	15.6	15.7	-0.08	14.1	13.0	1.13
Jonas Jerebko	54	54	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.13	-1	10	-11	15.7	15.5	0.17	14.0	13.2	0.84
Austin Daye	23	23	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.18	-5	14	-19	15.7	15.6	0.12	14.0	13.5	0.44
DaJuan Summers	0	1	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	9	-9	0.0	15.6	-15.61	2.0	13.7	-11.74
Kwame Brown	22	21	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	13	-17	16.4	15.4	1.03	13.2	13.7	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.37,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.67,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 84, CHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.48,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.97,1	92.6%
HOU 81, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.93,1,1,1,1	92.5%
DAL 94, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.62,0.7,0.83,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.8,0.77,0.97,0.99,1	92.4%