NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	81		Excitement	6.3 [592]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +14.1%
San Antonio Spurs	99		Comeback	2.5 [758]		LVP	Jon Barry (HOU): -16.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	65%	0.11	2	-0.09	5	40%	-0.06
David Wesley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	59%	0.04	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	21	46%	0.05	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Juwan Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	13	57%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	-0.00	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	3	42%	-0.03	1	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Jon Barry	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	4	11%	-0.08	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.09	-0.04	16	58%	0.18	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	4	80%	0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Mike Wilks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	2	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.03	6	82%	0.10	4	-0.12	10	70%	-0.04
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	60%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.07	-0.04	0.06	21	59%	0.02	1	-0.05	9	100%	0.04
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	0.04	6	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	3	25%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	7	26%	-0.11	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	3.6	33.1	17.6	30.2	3.7	38.2	154.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.6%

SAS +4.3%

SAS +12.0%

SAS +3.5%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	16.7	15.8	15.5	91.0	112.5	104.0
season	16.0	16.3		104.2	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.8		98.4	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.7	14.2	19.6	15.9	16.7
SAS	15.8	16.5	15.4	15.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	5	3	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.05	-3	-15	12	8.4	17.2	-8.84	14.7	15.8	-1.17
Andre Barrett	22	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-14	10	15.5	17.2	-1.71	16.7	15.5	1.14
Rod Strickland	52	52	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.17	-9	-9	0	17.6	15.5	2.10	15.6	16.1	-0.58
Clar. Weatherspoon	29	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-14	10	16.2	17.0	-0.84	16.6	15.4	1.13
Dikembe Mutombo	36	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	-14	10	16.0	17.2	-1.25	15.9	15.7	0.14
Yao Ming	50	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.11	-13	-5	-8	17.6	15.6	1.96	15.5	16.2	-0.72
Juwan Howard	63	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.14	-15	-3	-12	16.7	16.7	0.02	15.6	16.1	-0.51
David Wesley	58	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	-4	-10	17.7	15.0	2.72	15.1	17.1	-1.98
Tracy McGrady	82	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.01	-15	-3	-12	17.1	12.6	4.53	15.6	19.5	-3.88
Jon Barry	48	46	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.21	-9	-9	0	15.5	18.2	-2.70	16.9	14.6	2.34

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	72	73	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.05	18	0	18	15.1	19.1	-4.07	17.2	14.7	2.50
Tim Duncan	69	69	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.21	23	-5	28	15.5	16.8	-1.27	16.9	16.0	0.89
Devin Brown	44	47	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.03	12	6	6	15.6	16.0	-0.41	15.9	17.7	-1.80
Manu Ginobili	58	56	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.10	8	10	-2	16.8	13.9	2.93	16.4	17.4	-0.99
Rasho Nesterovic	30	32	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.18	3	15	-12	16.2	15.6	0.66	19.9	15.0	4.89
Bruce Bowen	56	56	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.25	17	1	16	15.4	16.4	-0.96	17.8	14.9	2.96
Malik Rose	36	36	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.18	12	6	6	14.9	16.4	-1.53	15.7	17.4	-1.67
Brent Barry	32	33	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.15	-2	20	-22	16.2	15.6	0.57	15.7	17.4	-1.66
Tony Massenburg	41	40	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.12	-2	20	-22	16.7	15.0	1.75	15.2	18.0	-2.80
Mike Wilks	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	17	-16	22.0	15.7	6.35	11.3	16.9	-5.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.93,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 82, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.8,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.3%
IND 91, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	93.7%
WAS 76, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.94,0.98,1,1	93.6%