NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	106		Excitement	6.1 [561]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +12.4%
San Antonio Spurs	118		Comeback	1.6 [1126]		LVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): -15.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	0.00	11	68%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	14	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Omri Casspi	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.01	14	67%	0.15	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Spencer Hawes	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	62%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	10	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Donte Greene	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.07	0.01	7	79%	0.09	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	5	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tyreke Evans	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	20	44%	-0.05	4	-0.11	3	33%	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.10	-0.00	14	56%	0.17	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.04	0.04	11	67%	0.14	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.03
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	5	90%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	18	64%	0.12	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Malik Hairston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.01	15	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	29.3	15.0	26.1	2.7	32.2	131.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +26.4%

SAS +2.3%

SAS +3.6%

SAS +15.0%

SAS +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	14.5	14.1	15.3	105.0	116.8	106.0
season	15.2	15.9		103.7	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.0		103.4	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.4	12.7	15.1	14.8	14.5
SAS	13.4	14.5	15.5	12.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	77	78	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.30	9	-21	30	13.8	16.7	-2.96	14.3	13.3	1.03
Spencer Hawes	60	62	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-6	0	15.1	13.4	1.71	14.3	13.7	0.56
Sergio Rodriguez	36	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-8	4	13.4	15.0	-1.57	13.1	14.6	-1.47
Omri Casspi	65	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-9	6	13.9	15.4	-1.45	13.9	14.4	-0.56
Andres Nocioni	45	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.00	-9	-3	-6	13.6	15.1	-1.46	13.9	14.2	-0.31
Ime Udoka	5	4	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	0	-12	20.2	14.2	6.04	12.5	14.1	-1.62
Tyreke Evans	80	82	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	-5	-2	14.8	13.1	1.66	14.0	14.1	-0.06
Donte Greene	49	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	0	-12	15.5	13.5	1.97	14.5	13.7	0.80
Jason Thompson	88	87	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.11	-16	4	-20	14.6	13.5	1.14	14.2	13.4	0.82

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	69	70	0.73	-0.23	0.95	-0.01	25	-13	38	14.2	13.7	0.50	15.1	13.0	2.10
Manu Ginobili	56	56	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.08	21	-9	30	12.9	15.4	-2.50	14.6	14.3	0.26
Tim Duncan	69	69	0.60	-0.10	0.69	-0.02	21	-9	30	14.5	13.2	1.32	14.8	13.6	1.22
Richard Jefferson	79	79	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	-2	16	14.1	14.0	0.08	15.2	11.8	3.37
Antonio McDyess	48	47	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	2	8	14.5	13.6	0.92	15.6	13.4	2.17
Matt Bonner	44	45	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.24	-3	15	-18	14.1	14.1	0.02	13.7	15.0	-1.30
Malik Hairston	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	12	-12	4.0	14.2	-10.16	17.0	14.4	2.57
DeJuan Blair	31	32	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.15	-7	19	-26	13.6	14.3	-0.69	13.6	14.8	-1.22
Keith Bogans	52	52	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	16	-20	15.0	13.0	2.02	13.7	15.3	-1.65
George Hill	46	44	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.15	-10	22	-32	13.2	14.7	-1.51	12.5	16.0	-3.46
Roger Mason Jr.	10	10	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.05	-7	19	-26	15.0	14.0	1.04	13.8	14.5	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.82,0.81,0.66,0.75,0.89,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 85, POR 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.84,0.91,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1	93.1%
DEN 75, PHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.86,0.93,0.73,0.86,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	92.6%
GSW 92, SAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.97,0.99,1	92.3%