NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	96		Excitement	4.1 [975]		MVP	Carlos Delfino (MIL): +10.4%
Detroit Pistons	105		Comeback	1.2 [881]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -8.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.01	-0.03	12	60%	0.11	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	0.00	0.07	11	81%	0.10	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	18	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.03	9	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.03	6	68%	0.05	3	-0.09	7	71%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	0.02	20	37%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	-0.01	10	70%	0.14	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	11	68%	0.15	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.02
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	9	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	8	61%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	75%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	3	40%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	0%	-0.03
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	8	46%	-0.00	4	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	67%	0.06	5	-0.12	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.7	34.5	16.8	25.3	2.5	37.4	149.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +38.3%

DET +7.4%

DET +19.4%

MIL -18.2%

DET +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	14.1	15.8	15.3	100.0	108.2	106.0
season	15.5	16.8		103.3	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.5		109.8	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.7	13.5	14.1	13.0	14.1
DET	13.7	15.3	18.6	15.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	18	17	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.15	8	-17	25	13.3	14.3	-0.99	16.1	15.7	0.37
Kurt Thomas	13	15	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-13	17	13.9	14.1	-0.19	16.9	15.5	1.32
Ersan Ilyasova	29	31	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-4	-1	14.9	13.7	1.12	15.5	15.9	-0.44
Luke Ridnour	56	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-13	17	13.3	15.1	-1.83	16.0	15.4	0.54
Luc Mbah a Moute	27	25	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	3	-15	13.1	14.5	-1.35	15.6	15.8	-0.21
Charlie Bell	80	81	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	-2	-5	14.5	11.8	2.73	15.7	15.8	-0.07
Carlos Delfino	64	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.21	-5	-4	-1	14.1	14.0	0.13	15.5	16.2	-0.65
Hakim Warrick	61	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	1	-11	14.4	13.5	0.99	16.9	13.8	3.10
Brandon Jennings	77	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-3	-3	13.7	15.7	-2.00	15.3	18.0	-2.72
Andrew Bogut	55	55	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.02	-16	7	-23	14.7	13.3	1.38	15.0	16.7	-1.65

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	75	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.10	13	-4	17	15.4	17.1	-1.73	14.4	13.1	1.26
Ben Wallace	68	68	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.20	8	1	7	15.3	16.9	-1.58	14.4	13.4	0.97
Jason Maxiell	57	56	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.02	14	-5	19	15.6	15.9	-0.29	14.8	13.1	1.73
Jonas Jerebko	56	55	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	4	1	15.3	16.4	-1.10	14.3	13.9	0.40
Ben Gordon	46	44	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	4	1	15.2	16.2	-0.98	13.8	14.3	-0.45
Chucky Atkins	39	39	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.01	8	1	7	15.0	16.2	-1.22	13.8	14.3	-0.44
Will Bynum	61	59	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.32	-6	15	-21	15.7	15.9	-0.26	13.0	15.9	-2.90
Charlie Villanueva	32	33	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.19	-3	12	-15	17.5	14.9	2.61	14.1	14.1	-0.03
Kwame Brown	29	28	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	8	-7	16.9	15.3	1.58	13.4	14.4	-0.97
Austin Daye	22	23	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	9	-9	18.7	14.9	3.79	14.8	13.8	0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 84, LAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.91,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.4%
SAS 81, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.86,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
BOS 99, LAL 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%