NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	125		Excitement	8.4 [177]		MVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): +57.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	129		Comeback	4.4 [610]		LVP	Anthony Morrow (GSW): -18.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.43,0.34,0.43	0.20	0.24	0.01	11	81%	0.49	1	-0.06	9	100%	0.09
Monta Ellis	0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.28	0.13	0.16	0.01	19	65%	0.31	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Curry	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.01	9	78%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	6	61%	0.10	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Mikki Moore	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.00	0.02	6	100%	0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Acie Law	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	4	67%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
CJ Watson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08	-0.00	-0.08	-0.00	17	52%	0.04	3	-0.12	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19	-0.07	-0.12	0.00	4	25%	-0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.02,0.08,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.3,0.51,0.54,0.58	0.58	0.31	0.27	0.01	34	72%	0.75	4	-0.17	8	75%	0.02
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22	0.22	0.06	0.17	0.01	9	61%	0.28	1	-0.05	5	80%	-0.03
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.10	-0.01	10	59%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.11	-0.01	7	47%	0.13	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.05	-0.02	10	40%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.03	12	63%	0.03	3	-0.07	6	17%	-0.09
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	5	67%	0.05	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.8	28.5	15.7	26.7	1.5	37.5	138.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +55.1%

GSW -22.6%

MIL +26.3%

GSW -12.2%

MIL +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIL	NBA	GSW	MIL	NBA
this game	13.1	14.5	15.3	117.9	125.2	106.0
season	13.4	15.5		106.5	103.3
opponent	15.5	14.8		101.8	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.6	12.5	14.6	11.6	13.1
MIL	15.2	15.8	13.6	13.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelenna Azubuike	6	5	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.02	1	-5	6	17.0	12.8	4.18	17.6	14.4	3.23
Acie Law	54	54	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.28	6	-10	16	12.5	13.7	-1.21	14.7	14.3	0.34
CJ Watson	74	73	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.05	-2	-2	0	13.2	12.6	0.62	14.8	13.9	0.83
Anthony Randolph	45	44	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-5	6	13.0	13.1	-0.18	13.8	15.0	-1.19
Mikki Moore	39	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	3	-10	14.3	12.3	1.98	15.7	13.8	1.84
Corey Maggette	49	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.21	-1	-3	2	12.0	14.0	-2.04	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Stephen Curry	60	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.43	2	-6	8	12.3	14.0	-1.63	13.8	15.5	-1.68
Monta Ellis	69	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	0	-4	13.1	12.9	0.17	14.9	13.7	1.23
Anthony Morrow	47	44	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	7	-18	14.0	12.3	1.66	13.7	15.2	-1.47
Stephen Jackson	87	83	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.43	-5	1	-6	13.0	13.1	-0.06	14.6	14.3	0.22

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bogut	65	69	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.33	18	-14	32	15.1	13.5	1.58	13.7	11.8	1.91
Luc Mbah a Moute	80	83	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.33	13	-9	22	14.4	15.0	-0.61	13.3	12.0	1.29
Brandon Jennings	87	90	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.31	11	-7	18	14.6	14.4	0.18	13.3	11.8	1.47
Charlie Bell	83	86	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-3	10	14.3	15.4	-1.15	13.1	12.7	0.38
Luke Ridnour	78	80	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.30	5	-1	6	14.7	14.0	0.69	12.7	14.1	-1.35
Dan Gadzuric	8	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	5	-6	14.4	14.5	-0.16	12.1	13.1	-0.98
Roko Leni Ukic	6	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.06	1	3	-2	18.3	14.3	4.04	18.4	12.8	5.61
Jodie Meeks	38	38	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	10	-16	13.7	15.0	-1.37	11.9	13.7	-1.85
Kurt Thomas	12	13	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.02	-4	8	-12	15.2	14.4	0.73	11.8	13.2	-1.47
Hakim Warrick	24	25	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.05	-8	12	-20	15.5	14.2	1.33	14.4	12.6	1.76
Ersan Ilyasova	34	34	-0.39	0.89	-1.27	0.08	-16	20	-36	13.2	15.2	-1.97	11.3	13.9	-2.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.36,0.38,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.47,0.63,0.67,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 103, SAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.29,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.39,0.52,0.59,0.79,0.84,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.96,1	92.7%
SAS 101, UTA 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.34,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.81,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.39,0.45,0.77,0.74,1	91.8%
UTA 86, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.52,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.74,0.65,0.54,0.47,0.64,0.68,0.96,1	91.8%