NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	8.1 [219]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +32.8%
Detroit Pistons	88		Comeback	11.1 [75]		LVP	John Salmons (CHI): -16.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.33	0.05	0.29	0.01	17	56%	0.37	2	-0.04	9	67%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0.20	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.2	0.09	0.12	0.00	15	63%	0.24	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	6	73%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Tim Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	5	38%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Tyrus Thomas	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	12	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	6	77%	0.18	6	-0.28	1	100%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	11	32%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	-0.01	-0.06	19	57%	0.18	2	-0.09	6	67%	0.06
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.06	0.02	11	63%	0.10	2	-0.13	8	75%	-0.02
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	14	39%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	12	27%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	6	21%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.15	-0.15	-0.00	-0.16	-0.01	15	46%	-0.11	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.8	29.4	18.3	26.6	2.7	42.2	147.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +60.7%

CHI +9.0%

DET -14.4%

DET -3.4%

DET -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	14.3	18.8	15.5	104.6	101.1	106.4
season	14.8	16.9		106.3	104.9
opponent	15.7	15.7		106.2	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.1	14.3	14.6	14.4	14.3
DET	18.0	17.7	19.7	19.9	18.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	62	62	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.63	1	2	-1	14.1	15.0	-0.98	19.1	18.0	1.06
Joakim Noah	64	65	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.38	6	-3	9	14.4	14.1	0.35	18.0	20.9	-2.88
Derrick Rose	74	75	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.43	3	0	3	14.3	14.8	-0.59	18.8	18.7	0.11
John Salmons	62	63	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.42	2	1	1	14.4	14.1	0.32	18.7	18.9	-0.16
Ben Gordon	56	57	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	-1	5	14.7	13.6	1.09	19.6	17.1	2.53
Kirk Hinrich	46	44	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.34	-5	8	-13	14.0	14.8	-0.82	17.5	20.0	-2.55
Tim Thomas	23	22	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.05	5	-2	7	14.2	14.4	-0.17	19.1	18.6	0.44
Brad Miller	48	47	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.18	-1	4	-5	14.6	14.1	0.53	19.4	18.0	1.31

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	37	36	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.22	-3	0	-3	19.0	18.6	0.47	13.6	14.8	-1.20
Arron Afflalo	26	26	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.15	-3	0	-3	19.0	18.6	0.40	14.0	14.5	-0.44
Jason Maxiell	13	13	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.06	0	-3	3	18.3	18.8	-0.53	12.9	14.6	-1.67
Will Bynum	20	20	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	1	-5	19.4	18.6	0.90	13.9	14.5	-0.51
Walter Herrmann	12	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	1	-5	22.0	18.2	3.76	12.7	14.6	-1.94
Richard Hamilton	69	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.42	1	-4	5	18.5	19.6	-1.07	14.6	13.6	0.90
Rodney Stuckey	67	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.44	1	-4	5	18.6	19.4	-0.90	14.5	13.9	0.51
Antonio McDyess	65	65	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.51	-1	-2	1	18.6	19.2	-0.57	14.9	12.7	2.17
Tayshaun Prince	67	68	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.56	0	-3	3	18.3	20.3	-2.00	14.6	13.5	1.05
Rasheed Wallace	59	60	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.60	-2	-1	-1	18.8	18.6	0.28	14.5	14.0	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.92,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 93, HOU 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.41,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.9,0.82,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.79,0.71,0.61,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.92,0	92.1%
DAL 96, LAL 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.59,0.75,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.85,0	92.1%
IND 81, HOU 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.73,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.69,0.72,0	91.6%